DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Power 모형을 이용한 비정상성 확률강수량 산정

Estimates the Non-Stationary Probable Precipitation Using a Power Model

  • 김광섭 (경북대학교 건축.토목공학부) ;
  • 이기춘 (경북대학교 건축.토목공학부) ;
  • 김병권 (경북대학교 건축.토목공학부)
  • 투고 : 2013.01.23
  • 심사 : 2014.07.15
  • 발행 : 2014.07.31

초록

In this study, we performed a non-stationary frequency analysis using a power model and the model was applied for Seoul, Daegu, Daejeon, Mokpo sites in Korea to estimate the probable precipitation amount at the target years (2020, 2050, 2080). We used the annual maximum precipitation of 24 hours duration of precipitation using data from 1973 to 2009. We compared results to that of non-stationary analyses using the linear and logistic regression. The probable precipitation amounts using linear regression showed very large increase in the long term projection, while the logistic regression resulted in similar amounts for different target years because the logistic function converges before 2020. But the probable precipitation amount for the target years using a power model showed reasonable results suggesting that power model be able to reflect the increase of hydrologic extremes reasonably well.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Bae, D. H., B. J. Lee, and I. W. Jung, 2008. Analysis of Construction Conditions Change due to Climate Change. Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers. 28(4D): 513-521 (in Korean).
  2. Hanel, M., and T.A. Buishand, 2010. On the Value of Hourly Precipitation Extremes in Regional Climate Model Simulations. Journal of Hydrology, 393: 265-273. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.08.024
  3. Jang, S. W., L. Seo, T. W. Kim, and J. H. Ahn, 2011. Non-stationary rainfall frequency analysis based on residual analysis. Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers. 31(5B): 449-457 (in Korean).
  4. Kim, G., and G. Lee, 2012a. Application of a Nonstationary Frequency Analysis Method for Estimating Probable Precipitation in Korea. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers, 54(5): 414-153 (in Korean).
  5. Kim, G., and G. Lee, 2012b. Estimates Extreme Hydrologic Event at Seoul Using Regression Analyses. Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, 12(3): 263-270 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2012.12.3.263
  6. Kim, G., T. K. Yim, and C. H. Park, 2009. Analysis of the Secular Trend of the Annual and Monthly Precipitation Amount of South Korea. Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, 9(6): 17-30 (in Korean).
  7. Leclerc, M., and T.B.M.J. Ouarda, 2007. Non-stationary regional flood frequency analysis at ungauged sites. Journal of Hydrology, 343: 254-265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.06.021
  8. Lee, C. H., T. Kim, M. Kyoung, and H. S. Kim, 2010. Estimation of Design Rainfalls Considering BCM2 Simulation Results. Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, 30(3B): 269-276 (in Korean).
  9. Lee, J. J., H. H. Kown, and K. N. Hwang, 2010. Concept of seasonality analysis of hydrologic extreme variables and design rainfall estimation using nonstationary frequency analysis. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association. 43(8): 733-745 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2010.43.8.733
  10. Shin, H., W. Nam, Y. Jung, and J. Heo, 2008. Uncertainty Assessment of Regional Frequency Analysis for Generalized Logistic Distribution. Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, 28(6B): 723-729 (in Korean).
  11. Villarini, G., J.A. Smith, and F. Napolitano, 2010. Nonstationary Modeling of a Long Record of Rainfall and Temperature over Romve. Advances in Water Resources, 33: 1256-1267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2010.03.013