Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회논문집)

The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회)
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Estimates the Non-Stationary Probable Precipitation Using a Power Model

Power 모형을 이용한 비정상성 확률강수량 산정

  • 김광섭 (경북대학교 건축.토목공학부) ;
  • 이기춘 (경북대학교 건축.토목공학부) ;
  • 김병권 (경북대학교 건축.토목공학부)
  • Received : 2013.01.23
  • Accepted : 2014.07.15
  • Published : 2014.07.31
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Abstract

In this study, we performed a non-stationary frequency analysis using a power model and the model was applied for Seoul, Daegu, Daejeon, Mokpo sites in Korea to estimate the probable precipitation amount at the target years (2020, 2050, 2080). We used the annual maximum precipitation of 24 hours duration of precipitation using data from 1973 to 2009. We compared results to that of non-stationary analyses using the linear and logistic regression. The probable precipitation amounts using linear regression showed very large increase in the long term projection, while the logistic regression resulted in similar amounts for different target years because the logistic function converges before 2020. But the probable precipitation amount for the target years using a power model showed reasonable results suggesting that power model be able to reflect the increase of hydrologic extremes reasonably well.

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References

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