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The Korean Earth Science Society (한국지구과학회)
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Study on the Prediction of Turning Point of Typhoon Tracks using COMS Water Vapor Images

천리안 수증기 영상을 이용한 태풍진로의 전향위치 예측 연구

  • Kim, Jong-Seok (Department of Astronomy and Atmospheric Science, Kyungpook Nation University) ;
  • Yoon, Ill-Hee (Department of Earth Science Education, Kyungpook Nation University)
  • 김종석 (경북대학교 천문대기과학과) ;
  • 윤일희 (경북대학교 지구과학교육전공)
  • Received : 2014.04.30
  • Accepted : 2014.06.04
  • Published : 2014.06.30
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Abstract

The purpose of this study focuses on the prediction time and location of turning-point of typhoon tracks using the water vapor images of Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) which has a very short observation interval. It targets a more accurate prediction of turning-point of typhoon tracks through the relationship between dry slot and northern/southern oscillations of jet stream. Jet stream moves by the position of jet streak and the ${\upsilon}$-component velocity of geostrophic wind. If the ${\upsilon}$-component of geostrophic wind gets stronger toward south, jet stream develops into a circular jet. In that condition, dry slot in satellite water vapor imagery extends toward south, and typhoon track turns as the distance of curved moisture band (CMB) gets narrowed down. If the interval of CMB is below $15^{\circ}$ of latitude, the typhoon track is turning toward north or northeast within 24 hours. As a result, typhoon track showed that when dry slot position was located less than $32^{\circ}N$, typhoon turned its track at $20-23^{\circ}N$ ($1^{th}$ Kong-Rey 2007 and $17^{th}$ Jelawt at 2012), and when in $35^{\circ}N$ above, it turned at $27^{\circ}N$ ($4^{th}$ Man-yi 2007).

이 연구의 목적은 관측주기가 짧은 천리안 위성의 수증기 영상자료를 활용하여 태풍의 전향위치와 시간까지 예측이 가능하도록 하는데 있다. 즉 수증기의 위성영상의 건조슬롯과 제트류의 남북진동의 관계를 이용하여 태풍진로의 전향위치를 보다 정확히 예측하는 것이다. 제트류는 제트스트리크의 위치와 지균풍 ${\upsilon}$성분의 크기에 따라 움직이는데, 지균풍 ${\upsilon}$ 성분이 남쪽방향으로 강화되면 제트류는 원형 제트로 발달하게 된다. 이때 수증기 영상에서는 건조슬롯이 남쪽으로 확대되고, 굴곡수분밴드(CMB) 거리가 좁혀지기 때문에 태풍이 전향하게 된다. 굴곡수분밴드가 위도 $15^{\circ}$ 이하이면 24시간 내에 태풍이 북 또는 북동으로 전향하게 된다. 결과적으로 태풍진로는 건조슬롯의 위치가 $32^{\circ}N$ 이하이면 $20-23^{\circ}N$이하에서 전향(2007년 1호 태풍 콩레이와 2012년 17호 태풍 즐라왓)하고, 건조슬롯이 $35^{\circ}N$ 이상 일 땐 $27^{\circ}$N에서 전향(2007년 4호 태풍 마니)하는 것으로 분석되었다.

Keywords

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