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유도무기 연구개발사업의 합리적인 비용 추정을 위한 전산모델 보정방안 사례 연구 (X 유도무기 유도조종장치 사례를 중심으로)

A case study on calibration of computational model for a reasonable cost estimation of missile development program (A case of guidance & control system of X missile)

  • 박정희 (광운대학교 방위사업학과)
  • Park, Chung-Hee (Dept. of Defense Acquisition Program, Kwangwoon University)
  • 투고 : 2014.03.19
  • 심사 : 2014.05.20
  • 발행 : 2014.05.28

초록

최근에는 모수(Parametric) 추정방법을 적용한 전산모델들이 개발되어 비용분석을 보다 효율적으로 예측할 수 있는 용도로 사용되고 있는 추세이다. 본 연구에서는 유도무기체계 분야 중 유도조종장치에 대한 데이터 경험치를 활용하여 공학적 추정 방법과 상용전산모델(Price H, HL, M, S)의 비용분석을 수행하고, 그 결과를 분석하여 차이점과 원인을 파악하였다. 전산모델의 수치적 데이터로 살펴 본 바에 따르면 유사장비 데이터베이스와의 비교 값을 근거로 하여 보정된 결과 값을 도출한 후, 공학적 추정방법으로 산정된 금액과 비교결과 근사한 수치를 보여 보정작업을 통한 데이터의 신뢰도가 향상됨을 알 수 있었다. 본 연구에서 개발비 추정 시, 많은 부분을 불확실한 요소에서 추정하였으나, 객관성을 확보할 수 있는 전산모델을 선택하여 사례를 연구함으로서 신뢰성을 높일 수 있었다. 이는 기존의 축적된 개발비 데이터에 근거하여 변수를 중심으로 한 추정방법을 기초로 합리적인 추정방법으로도 활용할 수 있음을 비용분석의 전산모델 보정(Calibration)을 통하여 밝혀냄으로써 보다 효율적인 비용 예측 기능에 일조할 것으로 사료된다.

In recent years, computational models using parametric estimation method have been developed and used widely for efficient cost analysis. In this research, by applying experienced data from Guidance and Control Systems in Missile System field, the cost analysis for engineering model and commercial computational model(Price H, HL, M, S) are conducted and its result is analysed, so that the difference between two models and its grounds are apprehended. Comparing the calibrated value of computational model based on the data base of similar equipment and the cost from the engineering estimation, the two results are very close. It means that the credibility of data is enhanced through calibration. Also, for cost analysis of similar components in the future, the method for calibration of the computational models is also examined. When estimating development cost in this research, although many parts have been estimated through uncertain elements, the reliability could have been enhanced by applying computational model which secures objectivity. It is a very reasonable estimation method by utilizing calibration of the computational models based on existing accumulated development data.

키워드

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