대한산업공학회지 (Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers)

  • 제40권3호
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  • Pages.333-341
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  • 2014
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  • 1225-0988(pISSN)
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  • 2234-6457(eISSN)
대한산업공학회 (Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers)
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비교유추법을 이용한 국내 신재생에너지 확산과정 및 필요 R&D 투자규모 예측

Forecasting the Diffusion Process and the Required Scale of R&D Investment of Renewable Energy in Korea Using the Comparative Analogy Method

  • 구상회 (경희대학교 산업경영공학과) ;
  • 이덕주 (경희대학교 산업경영공학과) ;
  • 김태구 (합동참보본부 분석실험부)
  • Koo, Sanghoi (Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering, Kyung Hee University) ;
  • Lee, Deok Joo (Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering, Kyung Hee University) ;
  • Kim, Taegu (Analysis and Experiment Directorate, Joint Chiefs of Staff)
  • 투고 : 2013.07.04
  • 심사 : 2014.02.20
  • 발행 : 2014.06.15
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초록

The purpose of this study is to forecast the penetration rate of renewable energy and a reasonable scale for the R&D investment plan in Korea based on the relationship between the diffusion and R&D investments drawn by analogy from empirical cases of advanced countries. Among numerous candidate developed countries, the German market was chosen based on the similarity of the diffusion patterns to those of the Korean plan. We then figured out how the investment triggers the growth of technology from the selected benchmark, and applied the technology S-curve relation formula to derive the desirable investment plan for Korea. The present paper is a pioneering attempt to forecast the diffusion process of renewable energy technology in Korea using the comparative analogy from cases of advanced countries.

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참고문헌

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