Population Ageing Crisis and Causal loop Analysis on the It's Dynamics in Rural County Regions

우리나라 군지역의 고령화 위기와 동태성의 인과순환적 구조분석

  • 최남희 (한국교통대학교 행정정보학과) ;
  • 이종근 (충북대학교 도시공학과) ;
  • 김근세 (성균관대학교 국정관리대학원) ;
  • 이명석 (성균관대학교 국정관리대학원)
  • Published : 2014.04.30

Abstract

This research primarily aims at analyzing major crises originating from marginalizing population, especially in counties. In addition, based on the system dynamics approaches, it pays attention to divulging causal loop structure which has been rather strengthened by diverse interactions among key variables. Judging from simulation works, even though Korea is exposed to unprecedented aging trends over decades, its counter response seems inadequate and insufficient, mostly dismissing a series of impact embedded in the aging dynamics. This research statistically confirms that demographic marginalization trends have already begun in the villages within Eup and Myon counties. Furthermore, this research pinpoints out the fact that it would be almost impossible for majority of villages within Eup and Myon counties to escape from going out of existence in the course of time, as they tend to be entrapped vicious cycle of marginalization or extinction.

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