자원ㆍ환경경제연구 (Environmental and Resource Economics Review)

한국자원경제학회 (Korean Resource Economics Association)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

비선형 공적분모형을 이용한 이산화탄소 배출량의 소득탄력성 추정

Time-Varying Income Elasticity of CO2 emission Using Non-Linear Cointegration

  • 이성로 (한국가스공사 경영연구소) ;
  • 김효선 (한국가스공사 경영연구소)
  • Lee, Sungro (Center for Gas and Economics & Management, Korea Gas Corporation) ;
  • Kim, Hyo-Sun (Center for Gas and Economics & Management, Korea Gas Corporation)
  • 투고 : 2014.08.04
  • 심사 : 2014.08.26
  • 발행 : 2014.09.30
PDF 다운로드
⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

본 논문은 이산화탄소 배출량과 소득과의 비선형적인 관계를 시간변동계수를 갖는 공적분모형으로 추정하였다. 특히 이산탄소배출량의 소득효과를 시간에 따라 서서히 변하는 것으로 모형화하였고, 이를 비모수적 방법을 이용하여 추정하였다. 추정결과 선진국의 경우 소득탄력성이 시간에 대해 감소하는 것으로 추정된 반면에 개발도상국의 소득탄력성은 시간에 따라 점차 증가하는 것으로 추정되었다. 이 같은 결과는 경제 발전단계에 따라 소득이 이산화탄소 배출량에 미치는 영향이 다르다는 환경쿠즈네츠곡선에서 의미하는 것과 일치하는 결과이고, 또한 기후변화협약과 교토의정서 상에서 의무준수 대상국(Annex I)과 Non-Annex I 국가 구분이 필요하다는 것을 반증한다. 이러한 차이는 선진국에 비하여 개도국의 경우 소득에 따른 이산화탄소 배출이 상대적으로 더욱 가속화될 수 있음을 의미하며, 이는 기후변화협약 상에서 개도국에 대한 기술이전 및 재정지원이 지속적으로 필요하다는 것에 대한 근거로 활용될 수 있다.

This paper intends to test the non-linear relationship between $CO_2$ emissions and income by employing cointegration model of the time-varying income elasticity. We select France, UK, Italy, Japan, US, China, India, Mexico and Korea and use non-parametric time series analysis on each country in order to estimate its own effect of income on $CO_2$ emission. The main results indicate that the $CO_2$ emission-income elasticities vary over time and the income elasticities of the Annex I countries tend to be higher in absolute terms than those of developing countries. In addition, we find that emission-income elasticities decrease for Annex I countries over time, whereas those for developing countries increase.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. 김인무. 김창식. 박성근, "에너지 상대가격 변화에 따른 에너지 수요 예측", 경제학 연구, 제59권, 제4호, 2011, pp. 199-228.
  2. 박준용. 김인무. 김창식. 이성로, "선도추급과정을 이용한 새로운 예측기법: 장기전력 수요예측에의 응용", 경제학연구, 제59권, 제3호, 2011, pp. 113-147.
  3. 온실가스종합정보센터, 국가온실가스 인벤토리보고서, 2013.
  4. Baek, J. and H. S. Kim, "Is Economic Growth Good or Bad for the Environment? Empirical Evidence from Korea," Energy Economics Vol. 36, 2013, pp. 744-749. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2012.11.020
  5. Bertinelli, L. and E. Strobl, "The Environmental Kuznets Curve Semi-Parametrically Revisited," Economics Letters Vol. 88, 2005, pp. 350-357. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2005.03.004
  6. Chang, H. and Y., Hsing, "The Demand for Residential Electricity: New Evidence on Time-Varying Elasticities," Applied economics, Vol. 23, No. 7, 1991, pp. 1251-1256. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036849100000165
  7. Chang, Y. and E. Martinez-Chombo, "Electricity Demand Analysis Using Cointegration and Error-Correction Models with Time Varying Parameters: The Mexican Case," Working Paper, Rice University, Department of Economics, 2003.
  8. Chang, Y., Y. Choi, C. S. Kim, J. Park, and J. I. Miller, "Disentangling Temporal Patterns in Elasticities: A Functional Coefficient Panel Analysis of Electricity Demand," Working paper, Indiana University, 2013.
  9. Copeland, B. and M. Taylor, "Trade, Spatial Separation and the Environment," NBER Working Papers 5242, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1995.
  10. Dargay, J., Are Price and Income Elasticities of Demand Constant?, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 1992.
  11. Fosten, J., B. Morley, and T. Taylor, "Dynamic Misspecification in the Environmental Kuznets Curve: Evidence from $CO_2$ and $SO_2$ Emissions in the United Kingdom," Ecological Economics, Vol. 76, 2012, pp. 25-33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.01.023
  12. Galli, R., "The Relationship between Energy Intensity and Income Levels: Forecasting Long Term Energy Demand in Asian Emerging Countries," Energy Journal, Vol. 19, No. 4, 1998, pp. 85-106.
  13. Haas, R. and L., Schipper, "Residential Energy Demand in OECD-Countries and the Role of Irreversible Efficiency Improvements," Energy Economics, Vol. 20, No. 4, 1998, pp. 421-442. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-9883(98)00003-6
  14. Holtz-Eakin, D. and T. Selden, "Stoking the Fires? $CO_2$ Emissions and Economic Growth," Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 57, 1995, pp. 85-101. https://doi.org/10.1016/0047-2727(94)01449-X
  15. Iwata, H., K. Okada, and S. Samreth, "Empirical Study on Environmental Kuznets Curve for $CO_2$ in France: The Role of Nuclear Energy," Energy Policy, Vol. 38, 2010, pp. 4057-4063. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.03.031
  16. Liao, H. and H. Cao, "How Does Carbon Dioxide Emission Change with the Economic Development? Statistical Experiences from 132 Countries," Global Environmental Change, Vol. 23, 2013, pp. 1073-1082. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.06.006
  17. Liddle, B., "Population, Affluence, and Environmental Impact across Development: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Modeling," Environmental Modeling & Software, Vol. 40, 2013, pp. 255-266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.10.002
  18. Medlock III, K. and R. Soligo, "Economic Development and End-Use Energy Demand," Energy Journal, Vol. 22, No. 2, 2001, pp. 77-106.
  19. Millimet, D. L., J. A. List, and T. Stengos, "The Environmental Kuznets Curve: Real Progress or Misspecified Models?" Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 85, No. 4, 2003, pp. 1038-1047. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465303772815916
  20. Park, J. Y. and S. B., Hahn, "Cointegrating Regressions with Time Varying Coefficients," Econometric Theory, Vol. 15, 1999, pp. 664-703.
  21. Park, J. Y., "Canonical Cointegrating Regressions," Econometrica, Vol. 60, No. 1, 1992, pp. 119-143. https://doi.org/10.2307/2951679
  22. Park, S. Y. and G. Zhao, "An Estimation of U.S. Gasoline Demand: A Smooth Time-Varying Cointegration Approach," Energy Economics, Vol. 32, No. 1, 2010, pp. 110-120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2009.10.002
  23. Romero-Avila, D., "Convergence in Carbon Emissions among Industrialized Countries Revisited," Energy Economics, Vol. 30, 2008, pp. 2265-2282. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2007.06.003
  24. Schmalensee, R., T. M. Stoker, and R. A. Judson, "World Carbon Dioxide Emissions: 1950-2050," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1998, 15-27.
  25. Stern, D., M. Common, and E. Barbier, "Economic Growth and Environmental Degradation: The Environmental Kuznets Curve and Sustainable Development", World Development, Vol 24, No 7, 1996, pp. 1151-1160. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(96)00032-0
  26. Strazicich, M. C. and J. A. List, "Are $CO_2$ Emission Levels Converging among Industrial Countries?" Environmental and Resource Economics, Vol. 24, No. 3, 2003, pp. 263-271. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022910701857
  27. Verbeke, T. and M. De Clercq, "The Income-Environment Relationship: Evidence from a Binary Response Model," Ecological Economics, Vol. 59, No. 4, 2006, pp. 419-428. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2005.11.011
  28. Wagner, M. "The Carbon Kuznets Curve: A Cloudy Picture Emitted by Bad Econometrics," Resource and Energy Economics, Vol. 30, 2008, pp. 388-408. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2007.11.001
  29. Wang, Q. and P. C. Phillips, "Structural Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression," Econometrica, Vol. 77, No. 6, 2009, pp. 1901-1948. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA7732