Environmental and Resource Economics Review (자원ㆍ환경경제연구)

Korean Resource Economics Association (한국자원경제학회)
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Electricity Demand and the Impact of Pricing Reform: An Analysis with Household Expenditure Data

가구별 소비자료를 이용한 전력수요함수 추정 및 요금제도 변경의 효과 분석

  • Kwon, Oh-Sang (Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kang, Hye-Jung (Department of Agricultural Economics, Chonnam National University) ;
  • Kim, Yong-Gun (Korea Environment Institute)
  • 권오상 (서울대학교 농경제사회학부 농업.자원경제학전공, 농업생명과학연구원) ;
  • 강혜정 (전남대학교 농업경제학과) ;
  • 김용건 (한국환경정책.평가연구원)
  • Received : 2014.05.31
  • Accepted : 2014.09.18
  • Published : 2014.09.30
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Abstract

This paper estimates household demand for electricity using a micro-level household expenditure data set. A two-stage estimation method where the endogenous block price estimates are obtained from a discrete block choice model is used. This method successfully identifies a downward sloping conditional demand function with the data, while both the usual two-stage method with instrumental variable estimation and the Hewitt-Hanemann discrete-continuous model fail to do that. The paper simulates the impacts of two hypothetical pricing reforms that reduce the number of blocks and make the price gap smaller. It is shown that the reform may increase the overall consumer benefit, but is regressive.

본고는 가구별 전력요금 지출액 자료를 이용해 가정용 전력의 수요함수를 추정하되, 전력요금이 구간별로 달라지는 구조를 명시적으로 반영한다. 기존의 도구변수를 이용한 추정법이나 2변량 이산-연속선택모형 모두 적용에 한계가 있어 본고는 2단계 분석법을 사용하되, 가구특성에 따라 소비구간이 선택되는 과정을 이산선택모형으로 먼저 추정하고, 이어서 각 구간이 선택될 확률의 예측치를 가중치로 이용해 구축된 가격예측치를 사용하여 조건부 전력수요함수를 추정하고 탄력성을 제시한다. 현재의 전력요금제에서는 구간의 수가 너무 많고 구간간 적용요금의 차이도 크다는 비판을 감안하여 구간의 수를 3개로 줄이고 구간 간 요금차이를 조정하되, 전체적으로 전력판매수입은 현재와 달라지지 않도록 하는 모의정책실험을 추정결과를 이용해 실행하면, 전력 다소비 가구의 전력요금이 갑자기 급증하는 현상은 크게 완화할 수 있지만, 대신 낮은 구간의 요금인상이 어느 정도 발생하고 전력 저소비층의 후생감소는 불가피하므로 이에 대한 대책도 필요하다는 결론을 도출한다.

Keywords

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