Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회지)

Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회)
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Research Status and Future Subjects to Predict Pest Occurrences in Agricultural Ecosystems Under Climate Change

기후변화에 따른 농업생태계 내 해충 발생 예측을 위한 연구 현황 및 향후 과제

  • Jung, Jong-Kook (Entomology Program, Department of Agricultural Biotechnology, Seoul National University) ;
  • Lee, Hyoseok (Entomology Program, Department of Agricultural Biotechnology, Seoul National University) ;
  • Lee, Joon-Ho (Entomology Program, Department of Agricultural Biotechnology, Seoul National University)
  • 정종국 (서울대학교 농생명공학부 곤충학전공) ;
  • 이효석 (서울대학교 농생명공학부 곤충학전공) ;
  • 이준호 (서울대학교 농생명공학부 곤충학전공)
  • Received : 2014.10.13
  • Accepted : 2014.11.10
  • Published : 2014.12.30
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Abstract

Climate change is expected to affect population density, phenology, distribution, morphological traits, reproduction and genetics of insects, and even in the extinction of insects. To develop novel research subjects for predicting climate change effect, basic information about biological and ecological data on insect species should be compiled and reviewed. For this reason, this study was conducted to collect the biological information on insect pests that are essential for predicting potential damage caused by insect pests in future environment. In addition, we compared domestic and foreign research trends regarding climate change effect and suggested future research subjects. Domestic researchers were rather narrow in the subject, and were mostly conducted based on short-term monitoring data to determine relationship between insects and environmental variables. On the other hand, foreign researches studied on various subjects to analyze the effect of climate change, such as changes in distribution of insect using long-term monitoring data or their prediction using population parameters and models, and monitoring of the change of the insect community structure. To determine change of the phenology, distribution, overwintering characteristics, and genetic structures of insects under climate change through development of monitoring technique, in conclusion, further researches are needed. Also, development of population models for major or potential pests is important for prediction of climate change effects.

기후변화는 곤충의 밀도와 분포, 몸의 형태와 개체의 크기 등 생물학적인 형질 변화, 생식 및 유전적 특성, 그리고 멸종 등에 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상되고 있다. 기후변화의 영향을 예측하여 피해를 줄이기 위해서는 분산되어 있는 곤충 종별 기본적인 생물학적/생태학적 정보들을 종합하여 검토할 필요가 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 기후 및 환경의 변화에 대한 곤충, 특히 해충의 발생 변화 예측에 필요한 생물학적 정보를 정리하여 이를 활용한 미래 피해 예측을 위한 기초 자료를 제공하고자 수행하였다. 또한 국내외 문헌을 비교 분석하여 국내에서 기후변화 연구를 수행하는데 있어 제한 요인들을 확인하고 향후 필요한 연구소요를 제시하고자 하였다. 국내의 연구들은 단기 모니터링 자료를 이용하여 환경 요인과의 관계를 분석하는 수준에 그치고 있는 반면, 국외 연구들은 장기 모니터링 자료를 이용한 분포 변화 분석이나 기 개발된 생물 종의 파라미터를 이용한 발생 및 분포 변화 예측 그리고 곤충 군집의 구성 변화를 모니터링하는 등 다양한 내용을 주제로 기후변화의 영향을 연구하고 있었다. 결론적으로 기후변화에 대응하기 위해서는 체계적인 모니터링 기술 개발을 통해 곤충의 계절발생, 분포, 월동 특성 및 유전적 구조 변화에 대한 연구가 필수적이며, 주요 해충 및 잠재적인 해충에 대한 기후변화의 영향을 예측하기 위해 곤충 개체군 모델의 개발 역시 중요한 부분이 될 것이다.

Keywords

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