Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers (한국해안·해양공학회논문집)

Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers (한국해안·해양공학회)
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Projection of the Future Wave Climate Changes Over the Western North Pacific

기후변화에 따른 북서태평양에서의 미래 파랑 전망

  • Park, Jong Suk (Laboratory, National Institute of Meteorological Research/Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Kang, KiRyong (National Typhoon Center/Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Kang, Hyun-Suk (Laboratory, National Institute of Meteorological Research/Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Kim, Young-Hwa (Laboratory, National Institute of Meteorological Research/Korea Meteorological Administration)
  • 박종숙 (기상청 국립기상연구소 지구환경시스템연구과) ;
  • 강기룡 (기상청 국가태풍센터) ;
  • 강현석 (기상청 국립기상연구소 지구환경시스템연구과) ;
  • 김영화 (기상청 국립기상연구소 지구환경시스템연구과)
  • Received : 2013.07.24
  • Accepted : 2013.09.16
  • Published : 2013.10.31
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Abstract

This study projected the future ocean wave climate changes based on global climate change scenario using the coupled climate model HadGEM2-AO according to the emission scenarios and using regional wave model. Annual mean significant wave height (SWH) is linked closely to annual mean wind speed during the forthcoming 21st Century. Because annual mean speed decreased in the western North Pacific, annual mean SWH is projected to decrease in the future. The annual mean SWH decreases for the last 30 years of the 21st century relative to the period 1971-2000 are 2~7% for RCP4.5 and 4~11% for RCP8.5, respectively. Also, extreme SWH and wind speed are projected to decrease in the future. In terms of seasonal mean, winter extreme SWH shows similar trend with annual extreme SWH; however, that of summer shows large increasing tendency compared with current climate in the western North Pacific. Therefore, typhoon intensity in the future might be more severe in the future climate.

HadGEM2-AO 기후모델의 기후변화 시나리오 자료와 파랑 모델을 이용하여 기후변화에 따른 북서태평양에서의 미래 파랑 기후를 전망하였다. 21세기말 북서태평양에서 연 평균 풍속이 현재보다 낮아질 것으로 전망됨에 따라 연 평균 유의파고도 낮게 전망되었다. 현재 기후에 비해서 21세기 말 연평균 유의파고는 RCP4.5 시나리오의 경우 2~7% 감소하고, RCP8.5의 경우 4~11% 정도 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 극한파랑의 경우도 유의파고 및 풍속이 현재에 비해서 감소할 것으로 전망되었다. 계절별로 분석한 결과 겨울철의 극한파랑은 연 극한 파랑과 비슷하게 감소하는 경향을 보인 반면, 여름철의 경우 북서태평양에서는 현재보다 증가할 것으로 나타나 미래에는 태풍의 강도가 강화 될 것으로 전망된다.

Keywords

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