DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Probabilistic failure analysis of underground flexible pipes

  • Tee, Kong Fah (Department of Civil Engineering, University of Greenwich) ;
  • Khan, Lutfor Rahman (Department of Civil Engineering, University of Greenwich) ;
  • Chen, Hua-Peng (Department of Civil Engineering, University of Greenwich)
  • Received : 2012.08.24
  • Accepted : 2013.07.03
  • Published : 2013.07.25

Abstract

Methods for estimating structural reliability using probability ideas are well established. When the residual ultimate strength of a buried pipeline is exceeded the limit, breakage becomes imminent and the overall reliability of the pipe distribution network is reduced. This paper is concerned with estimating structural failure of underground flexible pipes due to corrosion induced excessive deflection, buckling, wall thrust and bending stress subject to externally applied loading. With changes of pipe wall thickness due to corrosion, the moment of inertia and the cross-sectional area of pipe wall are directly changed with time. Consequently, the chance of survival or the reliability of the pipe material is decreased over time. One numerical example has been presented for a buried steel pipe to predict the probability of failure using Hasofer-Lind and Rackwitz-Fiessler algorithm and Monte Carlo simulation. Then the parametric study and sensitivity analysis have been conducted on the reliability of pipeline with different influencing factors, e.g. pipe thickness, diameter, backfill height etc.

Keywords

References

  1. Ahammed, M. and Melchers, R.E. (1994), "Reliability of underground pipelines subject to corrosion", Journal of Transportation Engineering, ASCE, 120(6), 989-1002. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(1994)120:6(989)
  2. Ahammed, M. and Melchers, R.E. (1997), "Probabilistic analysis of underground pipelines subject tocombined stresses and corrosion", Engineering Structures, 19(12), 988-994. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0141-0296(97)00043-6
  3. ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers) (2001), 'Guidelines for the design of buried steel pipe', American Lifelines Alliance, USA.
  4. AWWA (American Water Works Association) (1999), 'Fiberglass Pipe Design', AWWA Manual M45, USA, 35-53.
  5. ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers) (2001), 'Guidelines for the design of buried steel pipe', American Lifeline Alliance and ASCE, USA, 9-20.
  6. Babu, S.G.L. and Srivastava, A. (2010), "Reliability analysis of buried flexible pipe-soil systems", Journal of Pipeline Systems Engineering and Practice, ASCE, 1(1), 33-41. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)PS.1949-1204.0000041
  7. Babu, S.G.L., Srinivasa, M.B.R. and Rao, R.S. (2006), "Reliability analysis of deflection of buried flexible pipes", Journal of Transport Engineering, 132(10), 829-836. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(2006)132:10(829)
  8. Barbosa, M.R., Morris, D.V. and Sarma, S.V. (1989), "Factor of safety and probability of failure of rockfill embankments", Geotechnique, 39(3), 471-483. https://doi.org/10.1680/geot.1989.39.3.471
  9. Berti, D., Stutzman, R., Lindquist, E. and Eshghipour, M. (1998), "Technical forum: buckling of steel tunnel liner under external pressure", J. Energy Eng., 124(3), 55-89. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9402(1998)124:3(55)
  10. BS EN 1295:1 (1997), 'Structural design of buried pipelines under various conditions of loading- General requirements', British Standards Institution, UK.
  11. BS 9295 (2010), 'Guide to the structural design of buried pipelines', British Standards Institution, UK.
  12. Baecher, G.B. and Christian, J.T. (2003), Reliability and statistics in geotechnical engineering, Wiley, New York, USA.
  13. Chughtai, F. and Zayed, T. (2008), "Infrastructure condition prediction models for sustainable sewer pipelines", Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities, 22(5), 333-341. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0887-3828(2008)22:5(333)
  14. CPSA (Concrete Pipeline Systems Association) (2008), Charles Street, Leicester, UK
  15. Farshad, M. (2006), Plastic Pipe Systems: Failure Investigation and Diagnosis, First Edition. Elsevier Ltd.
  16. Gabriel, L.H. (2011), "Corrugated polyethylene pipe design manual and installation guide", Plastic Pipe Institute, USA.
  17. Haldar, A. and Mahadevan, S. (2000), Reliability Assessment Using Stochastic Finite Element Analysis, Chapter 3: Fundamentals of reliability analysis, Wiley and Sons, Canada.
  18. Hasofer, A.M. and Lind, N.C. (1974), "An exact and invariant first order reliability format", Journal of Engineering Mechanics Division, ASCE, 100(12), 111-121.
  19. Hauch, S. and Bai, Y. (1999), "Bending moment capacity of pipes", Proc. of the 18th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, Newfoundland, Canada, July.
  20. Lee, O.S. and Kim, D.H. (2006), "Reliability of buried pipelines with corrosion defects under varying boundary conditions", Journal of Solid State Phenomena, 110,183-192. https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/SSP.110.183
  21. O?Reilly, M.P., Rosbrook, R.B., Cox, F.C. and McCloskey, A. (1989), "Analysis of defects in 180km of pipe sewers in southern water authority", TRRL Research report 172.
  22. Rackwitz, R. and Fiessler, B. (1978), "Structural reliability under combined random load sequences", Computers & Structures, 9(5), 489-494. https://doi.org/10.1016/0045-7949(78)90046-9
  23. Rajani, B. and Makar, J. (2000), "A methodology to estimate remaining service life of grey cast iron water mains", Journal of Civil Eng. National Research Council of Canada, 27, 1259-1272. https://doi.org/10.1139/l00-073
  24. Sarplast: IniziativeIndustriali S.P.A. (2008), "Installation Manual", 19-23, Santa Luce, Italy.
  25. Sadiq, R., Rajani, B. and Kleiner, Y. (2004), "Probabilistic risk analysis of corrosion associated failures in cast iron water mains", Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 86(1), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2003.12.007
  26. Tee, K.F. and Li, C.Q. (2011), "A numerical study of maintenance strategy for concrete structures in marine environment", Proc. of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, Zurich, Switzerland, August.
  27. Tee, K.F., Li, C.Q. and Mahmoodian, M. (2011), "Prediction of time-variant probability of failure for concrete sewer pipes", Proc. of the 12th International Conference on Durability of Building Materials and Components, Porto, Portugal.
  28. Watkins, R.K. and Anderson, L.R. (2000), Structural Mechanics of buried pipes, CRC Press, LLC, Washington, D.C.USA.

Cited by

  1. Application of subset simulation in reliability estimation of underground pipelines vol.130, 2014, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2014.05.006
  2. Stochastic modelling and lifecycle performance assessment of bond strength of corroded reinforcement in concrete vol.54, pp.2, 2015, https://doi.org/10.12989/sem.2015.54.2.319
  3. Reliability analysis of underground pipelines with correlations between failure modes and random variables vol.228, pp.4, 2014, https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006X13520145
  4. Reliability based life cycle cost optimization for underground pipeline networks vol.43, 2014, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2014.04.007
  5. Risk-Cost Optimization of Buried Pipelines Using Subset Simulation vol.22, pp.2, 2016, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000287
  6. Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification in Pulmonary Drug Delivery of Orally Inhaled Pharmaceuticals vol.106, pp.11, 2017, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.xphs.2017.06.011
  7. Fuzzy-Based Robustness Assessment of Buried Pipelines vol.9, pp.1, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)PS.1949-1204.0000304
  8. Framework for maintenance management of shield tunnel using structural performance and life cycle cost as indicators vol.13, pp.1, 2017, https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2016.1198406
  9. Uncertainty effects of soil and structural properties on the buckling of flexible pipes shallowly buried in Winkler foundation vol.59, pp.4, 2016, https://doi.org/10.12989/sem.2016.59.4.739
  10. Quantification and comparison of carbon emissions for flexible underground pipelines vol.42, pp.10, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1139/cjce-2015-0156
  11. Reliability prediction for corroding natural gas pipelines vol.65, 2017, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2017.02.009
  12. Simulation of offshore aquaculture system for macro algae (seaweed) oceanic farming vol.12, pp.4, 2017, https://doi.org/10.1080/17445302.2016.1186861
  13. An iterative hybrid random-interval structural reliability analysis vol.7, pp.6, 2014, https://doi.org/10.12989/eas.2014.7.6.1061
  14. Application of receiver operating characteristic curve for pipeline reliability analysis vol.229, pp.3, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006X15571115
  15. A probabilistic analysis of Miner's law for different loading conditions vol.60, pp.1, 2016, https://doi.org/10.12989/sem.2016.60.1.071
  16. The influence of production inconsistencies on the functional failure of GRP pipes vol.19, pp.6, 2015, https://doi.org/10.12989/scs.2015.19.6.1369
  17. Time-dependent reliability analysis of coastal defences subjected to changing environments vol.2, pp.1, 2015, https://doi.org/10.12989/smm.2015.2.1.049
  18. Risk-based optimum repair planning of corroded reinforced concrete structures vol.2, pp.2, 2015, https://doi.org/10.12989/smm.2015.2.2.133
  19. Reliability-based safety factor for metallic strip flexible pipe subjected to external pressure vol.148, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2017.10.025
  20. Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics for Analysis of Longitudinal Cracks in Pipes Under Internal Pressure vol.18, pp.6, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11668-018-0564-8
  21. Buckling Uncertainty Analysis for Steel Pipelines Buried in Elastic Soil Using FOSM and MCS Methods pp.2093-6311, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13296-018-0126-7
  22. Prioritizing Water Mains for Inspection and Maintenance Considering System Reliability and Risk vol.9, pp.3, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)PS.1949-1204.0000324
  23. A Statement on the Stress Field of Pipe-Soil Structure vol.47, pp.2, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1520/JTE20170387
  24. Fuzzy-based optimised subset simulation for reliability analysis of engineering structures pp.1744-8980, 2019, https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2018.1552977
  25. Innovative approach to determine the minimum wall thickness of flexible buried pipes vol.15, pp.2, 2018, https://doi.org/10.12989/gae.2018.15.2.755
  26. Influence of bedding and backfill soil type on deformation of buried sewage pipeline vol.40, pp.4, 2013, https://doi.org/10.2478/sgem-2018-0035
  27. Influence of Backfill Soil Saturation on the Structural Response of Buried Pipes vol.7, pp.2, 2013, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40515-019-00094-7
  28. Multi-fidelity approach for uncertainty quantification of buried pipeline response undergoing fault rupture displacements in sand vol.136, pp.None, 2013, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2021.104197
  29. Failure assessment of corrosion affected pipeline networks with limited failure data availability vol.157, pp.None, 2013, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2021.11.024