한국대기환경학회지 (Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment)

  • 제29권3호
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  • Pages.251-263
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  • 2013
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  • 1598-7132(pISSN)
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  • 2383-5346(eISSN)
한국대기환경학회 (Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment)
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IPCC SRES A2와 B1 시나리오에 따른 한반도지역의 여름철 지표 오존의 수치모의

Simulations of Summertime Surface Ozone Over the Korean Peninsula Under IPCC SRES A2 and B1 Scenarios

  • 홍성철 (국립환경과학원 기후변화연구과) ;
  • 최진영 (국립환경과학원 기후변화연구과) ;
  • 송창근 (국립환경과학원 기후변화연구과) ;
  • 홍유덕 (국립환경과학원 기후변화연구과) ;
  • 이석조 (국립환경과학원 기후변화연구과) ;
  • 이재범 (국립환경과학원 기후변화연구과)
  • Hong, Sung-Chul (Climate Change Research Division, Climate and Air Quality Research Department, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Choi, Jin-Young (Climate Change Research Division, Climate and Air Quality Research Department, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Song, Chang-Keun (Climate Change Research Division, Climate and Air Quality Research Department, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Hong, You-Deog (Climate Change Research Division, Climate and Air Quality Research Department, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Lee, Suk-Jo (Climate Change Research Division, Climate and Air Quality Research Department, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Lee, Jae-Bum (Climate Change Research Division, Climate and Air Quality Research Department, National Institute of Environmental Research)
  • 투고 : 2012.11.20
  • 심사 : 2013.04.02
  • 발행 : 2013.06.30
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초록

The surface ozone concentrations changes were investigated in response to climate change over the Korean peninsula for summertime using the global-regional one way coupled Integrated Climate and Air quality Modeling System (ICAMS). The future simulations were conducted under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 scenarios. The modeling system was applied for four 10-year simulations: 1996~2005 as a present-day case, 2016~2025, 2046~2055, and 2091~2100 as future cases. The results in this study showed that the mean surface ozone concentrations increased up to 0.5~3.3 ppb under the A2, but decreased by 0.1~10.9 ppb under the B1 for the future, respectively. However, its increases were lower than an increase of the average daily maximum 8-hour (DM8H) surface ozone concentrations which was projected to increase by 2.8~6.5 ppb under the A2. The DM8H surface ozone concentrations seem to be therefore far more affected by the climate and emissions changes than mean values. The probability of exceeding 60 ppb was projected to increase by 6~19% under the A2. In the case of B1, its changes were presented with an increase of 2.9% in the 2020s but no occurrence in the 2100s due to the effect of the reduced emissions. Future projection on surface ozone concentrations was generally shown to have almost the similar trend as the emissions of $NO_x$ and NMVOC.

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