Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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The Application of the Poisson Cluster Rainfall Generation Model to the Flood Analysis

포아송 클러스터 강우생성 모형의 홍수 모의 적용성 평가

  • Kim, Dongkyun (Department of Civil and Urban Engineering, Hongik University) ;
  • Shin, Ji Yae (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University) ;
  • Lee, Seung-Oh (Department of Civil and Urban Engineering, Hongik University) ;
  • Kim, Tae-Woong (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University)
  • 김동균 (홍익대학교 건설도시공학부) ;
  • 신지예 (한양대학교 대학원 건설환경공학과) ;
  • 이승오 (홍익대학교 건설도시공학부) ;
  • 김태웅 (한양대학교 공학대학 건설환경플랜트공학과)
  • Received : 2012.11.07
  • Accepted : 2013.01.28
  • Published : 2013.05.31
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Abstract

The applicability of the parameter map of the Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse (MBLRP) model for the Korean Peninsula was assessed from the perspective of flood prediction. The design rainfalls estimated from the MBLRP model were smaller than those from observed values by 5% to 40%, and the degree of underestimation of design rainfall increases with the increase of the recurrence interval of the design rainfall. The design floods at a virtual watershed estimated using the simulated rainfall time series based on MBLRP model were also smaller than those derived from the observed rainfall time series by 20% to 45%. The degree of underestimation of design flood increases with the increase of the recurrence interval of the design flood.

본 연구는 우리나라 전역에 대하여 제작된 Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse (MBLRP) 강우생성 모형의 모수 지도의 적용성을 홍수 재현의 관점에서 평가하였다. MBLRP 모형을 통해 생성된 가상 강우시계열을 사용하여 산정된 확률강우량은 관측치를 사용하여 산정된 확률강우량 보다 약5%에서 40%정도 작았고, 확률강우량의 재현기간이 클수록 과소산정의 정도가 크게 나타났다. 가상의 도시 유역에 MBLRP 모형을 적용하여 산정한 확률홍수량은 관측치를 사용하여 산정한 확률홍수량 보다 약20%에서 45%정도 작게 나타났고, 확률홍수량의 재현기간이 클수록, 그리고 유역의 불투수성이 작을수록 과소산정의 정도가 크게 나타났다.

Keywords

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