Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Impacts of Two Types of El Niño on Hydrologic Variability in Annual Maximum Flow and Low Flow in the Han River Basin

두 가지 El Niño 형태에 따른 한강 유역의 연최대홍수량 및 저유량의 변화 분석

  • Kim, Jong-Suk (Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Seoul) ;
  • Yoon, Sun-Kwon (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, KAIST) ;
  • Lee, Joo-Heon (Department of Civil Engineering, Joongbu University)
  • 김종석 (서울시립대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 윤선권 (한국과학기술원 건설 및 환경공학과 미래도시연구소) ;
  • 이주헌 (중부대학교 공과대학 토목공학과)
  • Received : 2012.03.14
  • Accepted : 2012.07.05
  • Published : 2012.10.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

In this study, we analysed hydrologic variability in quantity and onset of annual maximum flow and low flow by impacts of the different phases of ENSO (El Ni$\tilde{n}$o Southern Oscillation) over the Han River Basin. The results show that annual maximum flow has increased statistically significant about 48.3% of all over the watershed. The onset of annual maximum flow was delayed in the west of the Han River basins and in the east of the basins was likely to be rapid onset. Also, this study shows that 7-day low flow was deceased statistically significant about 26.0% of the total area in the Han River Basin, and onset of 7-day low flow tends to be faster in the upper-middle basins of the Han River. The onset of annual maximum flow shows similar pattern during the CT (Cold tongue)/WP (Warm-pool) El Ni$\tilde{n}$o years, but annual maximum flow appeared less in 89.0% of all basins during the CT El Ni$\tilde{n}$o years. In addition, the onset of 7-day low flow tended to be faster about 17 days on average during the WP El Ni$\tilde{n}$o years, and 72.7% of the basins show significant increase during the CT El Ni$\tilde{n}$o years. Consequently, it was found that the different phases of CT/WP El Ni$\tilde{n}$o have effects on sensitivity to variability in quantity and onset of water resources over the Han River Basin. We expect that the present diagnostic study on hydrological variability during different phases of ENSO will provide useful information for long-term prediction and water resources management.

본 연구에서는 서로 다른 ENSO(El Ni$\tilde{n}$o Southern Oscillation) 형태에 따른 한강유역의 연최대홍수량과 저유량의 정량적 변화 및 발생시점의 변화를 분석하였다. 경향성 분석결과, 연최대유출의 경우 한강 전체 유역면적의 48.3%가 통계적으로 유의한 증가패턴을 보였으며, 연최대 유출의 발생시기는 한강 서부유역에서 늦어지고, 동부유역에서는 빨라지는 경향이 있음을 확인하였다. 또한 7일 저유량의 경우, 24개 중권역중 6개 유역(전체 면적의 26.0%)에서 통계적으로 유의한 감소경향을 보였으며, 저유량의 발생시기는 한강중상류 유역에서 빨라지는 경향이 있음을 확인하였다. CT(Cold tongue)/WP(Warm-pool) El Ni$\tilde{n}$o 시기에 연최대유출의 발생시점의 차이는 크지 않으나, CT El Ni$\tilde{n}$o 시기에는 전체유역의 89.0%에서 연최대유출량이 평년보다 작게 나타났다. 또한, 7일 저유량의 발생시점은 WP El Ni$\tilde{n}$o 시기에 평균적으로 약 17일 정도 빠르며, CT El Ni$\tilde{n}$o (WP El Ni$\tilde{n}$o)시기에는 전체 유역의 72.7%(20.0%)에서 통계적으로 유의한 증가(감소)패턴을 보이는 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구는 서로 다른 형태의 CT/WP El Ni$\tilde{n}$o가 한강 유역 수자원의 양과 발생시점의 변화에 민감하게 영향을 미치고 있음을 확인하였으며, 향후 다양한 형태의 ENSO에 따른 수문변량의 변화에 대한 진단연구를 통하여 장기적인 수자원관리 및 예측을 위한 기초 자료로 활용이 가능하리라 사료된다.

Keywords

References

  1. 강인식(1998). "엘니뇨와 한반도 기후변동의 관련성." 한국기상학회논문집, 한국기상학회, 제34권, 제3호, pp. 390-396.
  2. 권현한, 문영일 (2005). "Nino3.4지역 SST 및 여름강수량의 독립성분분석." 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, 제38권, 제12호, pp. 985-994. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2005.38.12.985
  3. 신현석, 안재현, 윤용남(1999). "엘니뇨와 우리나라 강수량의 시 공간적 상관관계 분석." 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, 제19권, 제2-1호, pp. 1-12.
  4. 윤진희, 예상욱(2009). "서로 다른 두 유형의 엘니뇨와 동아시아 인근 해역 표층 온도 상관성 연구." Ocean and Polar Research, 제31권, 제1호, pp. 1-61. https://doi.org/10.4217/OPR.2009.31.1.051
  5. 차은정, 전종갑, 정효상 (1999). "엘니뇨/라니냐 해의 우리 나라 기후 특성에 관한 연구." 한국기상학회논문집, 한국기상학회, 제35권, 제2호, pp. 272-282.
  6. 추현재, 김태웅, 이정규, 이재홍 (2007). "ENSO와 한국의 수문변량들간의 계절적 관계 분석." 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, 제40권, 제4호, pp. 299-311. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2007.40.4.299
  7. Ashok, K., and Yamagata, T. (2009). "Climate Change: The El Niño with a difference." Nature, Vol. 461, pp. 481-484. https://doi.org/10.1038/461481a
  8. Ashok, K., Behera, S.K., Rao, S.A., Weng, H., and Yamagata, T. (2007). "El Nino Modoki and its possible teleconnection." Journal of Geophysical Research. Vol. 112, C11007, doi:10.1029/2006 JC003798.
  9. Becker, R.A., Chambers, J.M., and Wilks, A.R. (1988). "The New S Language: a programming environment for data analysis and graphics." Wadsworth & Brooks/ Cole Advanced Books & Softwar Monterey, CA, USA.
  10. Dressler, K.A., Leavesley, G.H., Bales, R.C., and Fassnacht, S.R. (2006). "Evaluation of girdded snow water equivalent and satellite snow cover products for mountain basins in a hydrologic model." Hydrological Processes, Vol. 20, pp. 673-688. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6130
  11. Feng, J., Chen, W., Tam, C.Y., and Zhou, W. (2011). "Different impacts of El Niño and El Niño Modoki on China rainfall in the decaying phases." International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 31, pp. 2091-2101. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2217
  12. Gershunov, A., Barnett, T.B., and Cayan, D.R. (1999). "North Pacific Interdecadal Oscillation Seen as Factor in ENSO-related North American Climate Anomalies." Eos. Transactions. American Geophysical Union, Vol. 80, No. 3, pp. 25.
  13. Helsel, D.R., and Hirsch, R.M. (1992). "Statistical Methods in Water Resources." Elsevier, Amsterdam.
  14. Hintze, J.L., and Nelson, R.D. (1998). "Violin Plots: A Box Plot-Density Trace Synergism." The American Statistician, Vol. 52 No. 2, pp. 181-184.
  15. Kao, H.Y., and Yu, J.Y. (2009). "Contrasting Eastern- Pacific and Central-Pacific Types of ENSO." Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, pp. 615-632. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2309.1
  16. Kendall, K. (1975). "Thin-film peeling-the elastic term." J. Phys., Vol. 8, pp. 1449-1452.
  17. Kim, J.S., Jain, S., and Moon, Y.L. (2011). "Atmospheric teleconnection-based conditional streamflow distributions for the Han River and its sub-watersheds in Korea." International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 32, pp. 1466-1474.
  18. Kim, J.S., Jain, S., and Yoon, S.K. (2012). "Warm season streamflow variability in the Korean Han River Basin: links with atmospheric teleconnections." International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 32, No. 4, pp. 635-640. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2290
  19. Kug, J.S., Jin, F.F., and An, S.I. (2009). "Two types of El Nino events: Cold tongue El Niño and warm pool El Nino." Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, pp. 1499-1515. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2624.1
  20. Leavesley, G.H., Lichty, R.W., Troutman, B.M., and Saindon, L.G. (1983). "Precipitation-Runoff Modelling System, User's manual."Water Resources Investigations: 83-4238. US Geological Survey: Reston, VA.
  21. Lee, T., and McPhaden, M.J. (2010). "Increasing intensity of El Niño in the central-equatorial Pacific." Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 37, L14603, doi:10.1029/2010 GL044007.
  22. Mann, H.B. (1945). "Non-Parametric tests against trend." Econometrica, Vol. 13, pp. 245-259. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187
  23. Mathews, R., and Richter, B.D. (2007). "Application of the indicators of hydrologic alteration software in environmental flow setting." Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 43, pp. 1400-1413. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2007.00099.x
  24. McPhaden, M.J., Zebiak, S.E., and Glantz, M.H. (2006). "ENSO as an Integrating Concept in Earth Science." Science, Vol. 314, pp. 1740-1745. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1132588
  25. Na, H., Jang, B.G., Choi, W.M., and Kim, K.Y. (2011). "Statistical Simulations of the Future 50-year Statistics of Cold-Tongue El Nino and Warm-Pool El Nino." Asia-Pacific J. Atmos. Sci. Vol. 47, No. 3, pp. 223-233. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-011-0011-1
  26. Newman, A.V., Hayes, G., Wei, Y., and Convers, J. (2011). "The 5 October 2010 Mentawai tsunami earthquake, from real-time discriminants, finite fault rupture, and tsunami excitation." Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 38, L05302, doi:10.1029/2010GL046498.
  27. NOAA(national weather service climate prediction center) (2012). URL: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/. accessed January 2012.
  28. Piechota, T.C., and Dracup, J.A. (1996). "Drought and regional hydrologic variation in the United States: Associations with the El Niño-Southern oscillation." Water Resources Research, Vol. 32, No. 5, pp. 1359-1373. https://doi.org/10.1029/96WR00353
  29. Piechota, T.C., Chiew Francis, H.S., Dracup, J.A., and McMachon, T.A. (1998). "Seasonal streamflow forecasting in eastern Australia and the El Nino- Southern Oscillation."Water Resources Research, Vol. 34, No. 11, pp. 3035-3044. https://doi.org/10.1029/98WR02406
  30. Pradhan, P.K., Preethi, B., Ashok, K., Krishna, R., and Sahai, A.K. (2011). "Modoki, Indian Ocean Dipole, and western North Pacific typhoons: Possible implications for extreme events." Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 116, D18108, doi:10.1029/2011JD015666.
  31. Poff, N.L., and Ward, J.V. (1989). "Implications of streamflow variability and predictability for lotic community structure: a regional analysis of streamflow patterns." Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Vol. 46, pp. 1805-1818. https://doi.org/10.1139/f89-228
  32. Poff, N.L., and Ward, J.V. (1990). "The physical habitat template of lotic systems: recovery in the context of historical pattern of spatio-temporal heterogeneity." Environmental Management, Vol. 14, pp. 629-646. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02394714
  33. Rayner, N.A., Parker, D.E., Horton, E.B., Folland, C.K., Alexander, L.V., Rowell, D.P., Kent, E.C., and Kaplan, A. (2003). "Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century." Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 108, 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.
  34. Ren, H.L., and Jin, F.F. (2011). "Nino indices for two types of ENSO." Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, L04704, doi:10.1029/2010GL046031.
  35. Richer, B.D., Baumgartner, J.V., Powell, J., and Braun, D.P. (1996). "A Method for assessing hydrologic alteration within ecosysterms." Conservation Biology, Vol. 10, No. 4, pp. 1163-1174. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1523-1739.1996.10041163.x
  36. Ripley, B.D. (1987). "Stochastic Simulation." John Wiley & Sons, Inc. New York, NY, USA.
  37. Schonher, T., and Nicholson, S.E. (1989). "The Relationship between California Rainfall and ENSO Events." Journal of Climate, Vol. 2, pp. 1258-1269. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1989)002<1258:TRBCRA>2.0.CO;2
  38. Trenberth K.E. (1997). "The Definition of El Nino." National Center for Atmospheric Research, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, pp. 2771-2777.
  39. UNESCO (2011). URL: http://www.unesco.org/water/news/newsletter/225.shtml/accessed 28 March 2011.
  40. WAMIS (water management information system)(2012). URL: http://wamis.go.kr/eng/. accessed January 2012.
  41. Weng, H., Ashok, K., Behera, S., Rao, S., and Yamagata, T. (2007). "Impacts of recent El Nino Modoki on dry/ wet conditions in the Pacific rim during boreal summer." Climate Dynamics, Vol. 29, pp. 113-129. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0234-0
  42. Yeh, S.W., Kug, J.S., Dewitte, B., Kwon, M.H., Kirtman, B.P., and Jin, F.F. (2009). "El Nino in a changing climate." Nature, Vol. 461, pp. 511-514, doi:10.1038/nature08316.

Cited by

  1. A Study on Typhoon Impacts in the Nakdong River Basin Associated with Decaying Phases of Central-Pacific El Niño vol.34, pp.1, 2014, https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2014.34.1.0135