The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers (전기학회논문지)

The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers (대한전기학회)
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Genetic Programming Based Compensation Technique for Short-range Temperature Prediction

유전 프로그래밍 기반 단기 기온 예보의 보정 기법

  • 현병용 (서경대학교 전자공학과) ;
  • 현수환 (현대중공업 기전연구소) ;
  • 이용희 (국립기상연구소 기상연구관) ;
  • 서기성 (서경대학교 전자공학과)
  • Received : 2012.08.09
  • Accepted : 2012.10.20
  • Published : 2012.11.01
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Abstract

This paper introduces a GP(Genetic Programming) based robust technique for temperature compensation in short-range prediction. Development of an efficient MOS(Model Output Statistics) is necessary to correct systematic errors of the model, because forecast models do not reliably determine weather conditions. Most of MOS use a linear regression to compensate a prediction model, therefore it is hard to manage an irregular nature of prediction. In order to solve the problem, a nonlinear and symbolic regression method using GP is suggested. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of the estimation by a GP based nonlinear MOS for 3 days temperatures in Korean regions. This method is then compared to the UM model and has shown superior results. The training period of 2007-2009 summer is used, and the data of 2010 summer is adopted for verification.

Keywords

References

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Cited by

  1. Evolutionary Nonlinear Regression Based Compensation Technique for Short-range Prediction of Wind Speed using Automatic Weather Station vol.64, pp.1, 2015, https://doi.org/10.5370/KIEE.2015.64.1.107