Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society (한국산학기술학회논문지)

The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society (한국산학기술학회)
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A Study on the Demand Forecasting and Efficient Operation of Jeju National Airport using seasonal ARIMA model

계절 ARIMA 모형을 이용한 제주공항 여객 수요예측 및 효율적 운영에 관한 연구

  • Kim, Kyung-Bum (Department of Public Administration, Jeju National University) ;
  • Hwang, Kyung-Soo (Department of Public Administration, Institute for Social Science Research, Jeju National University)
  • 김경범 (제주대학교 행정학과) ;
  • 황경수 (제주대학교 행정학과 & 사회과학연구소)
  • Received : 2012.05.31
  • Accepted : 2012.08.09
  • Published : 2012.08.31
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Abstract

This research is to find out the method appropriate for the forecasting of passennger demand using seasonal ARIMA model and efficient operation in Jeju National Airport. Time series monthly data for the investigation were collected ranging from January 2003 to December 2011. A total of 108 observations were used for data analysis. Research findings showed that the multiplicative seasonal ARIMA(0.1.2)(0.1.1)12 model is appropriate model. The number of passengers in Jeju National Airport will continue to rise, it was expected to surpass 20 million people.

본 연구는 단변량 시계열분석 중에서 계절 ARIMA 모형을 이용하여 제주공항의 여객수요 예측과 그에 따른 효율적인 운영관리 방안을 제시하고자 하였다. 연구의 목적을 달성하기 위하여 사용된 시계열데이터는 2003년 1월부터 2011년 12월까지의 월별데이터이며, 관찰 수는 108개이다. 분석결과, 최적모형으로 계절 ARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1)12 모형이 선정되었으며, 제주공항의 여객수는 지속적으로 증가할 것으로 나타나고 있으며, 2013년에는 1년에 2천만명을 넘어설 것으로 예측되었다.

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