Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers (대한산업공학회지)

Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers (대한산업공학회)
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A Study on the Forecasting of the Number of End of Life Vehicles in Korea using Markov Chain

Markov Chain을 이용한 국내 폐차발생량 예측

  • Lee, Eun-A (Department of Industrial and Management Engineering, Korea University) ;
  • Choi, Hoe-Ryeon (Department of Industrial and Management Engineering, Korea University) ;
  • Lee, Hong-Chul (Department of Industrial and Management Engineering, Korea University)
  • 이은아 (고려대학교 산업경영공학부) ;
  • 최회련 (고려대학교 산업경영공학부) ;
  • 이홍철 (고려대학교 산업경영공학부)
  • Received : 2012.03.06
  • Accepted : 2012.04.16
  • Published : 2012.09.01
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Abstract

As the number of end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) has kept increasing, the management of ELV has also become one of the academic research focuses and European Union recently adopted the directive on ELVs. For the stakeholders has become a principle agent of dealing with all about ELVs, it is relevant investment decision to set up and to decide high-cost ELVs entity locations and to forecast future ELVs' amount in advance. In this paper, transition probability matrixes between months are made by using Markov Chain and the number of ELVs is predicted with them. This study will perform a great role as a fundamental material in Korea where just started having interests about recycling resources and studies related to the topic. Moreover, the forecasting method developed for this research can be adopted for other enhancements in different but comparable situations.

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References

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