한국도로학회논문집 (International Journal of Highway Engineering)

  • 제14권4호
  • /
  • Pages.83-91
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  • 2012
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  • 1738-7159(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2287-3678(eISSN)
한국도로학회 (Korean Society of Road Engineers)
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로터리 사고발생 위치별 사고모형 개발

Developing Accident Models of Rotary by Accident Occurrence Location

  • 나희 (충북대학교 도시공학과) ;
  • 박병호 (충북대학교 도시공학과)
  • 투고 : 2011.07.01
  • 심사 : 2012.07.03
  • 발행 : 2012.08.15
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초록

PURPOSES : This study deals with Rotary by Accident Occurrence Location. The purpose of this study is to develop the accident models of rotary by location. METHODS : In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attentions to developing the appropriate models using multiple linear, Poisson and negative binomial regression models and statistical analysis tools. RESULTS : First, four multiple linear regression models which are statistically significant(their $R^2$ values are 0.781, 0.300, 0.784 and 0.644 respectively) are developed, and four Poisson regression models which are statistically significant(their ${\rho}^2$ values are 0.407, 0.306, 0.378 and 0.366 respectively) are developed. Second, the test results of fitness using RMSE, %RMSE, MPB and MAD show that Poisson regression model in the case of circulatory roadway, pedestrian crossing and others and multiple linear regression model in the case of entry/exit sections are appropriate to the given data. Finally, the common variable that affects to the accident is adopted to be traffic volume. CONCLUSIONS : 8 models which are all statistically significant are developed, and the common and specific variables that are related to the models are derived.

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참고문헌

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