Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society (한국산학기술학회논문지)

The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society (한국산학기술학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Measuring Unemployment Durations of Different Types of Workers

실업지속기간의 측정모형

  • Received : 2012.02.06
  • Accepted : 2012.04.12
  • Published : 2012.04.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

This paper aims to build a model of unemployment duration, in which each type of unemployment duration can be defined as a function of other exogenous variables. Recently, the so-called mismatch in the labor market has become a big issue in most countries. It is very obvious that 'mismatch' is deeply related to the long duration of unemployment status. Two problems may be head and tail of the same coin. Employing a simple analysis of Markov stochastic process, the model of unemployment duration developed here is useful for seeing the effects of shocks on unemployment duration. The model allows us to distinguish the determinants of different kinds of unemployment and to identify the nature of unemployment duration.

실업의 규모는 실업상태에 진입하는 진입률의 크기와 실업상태의 지속기간이라는 두가지 요인에 의하여 결정된다. 본 연구는 실업의 지속기간을 측정하는 모형을 개발하여 다양한 형태의 실업자들의 실업지속기간을 측정하고자 한다. 분석결과 신규실업참가자의 실업지속기간과 실직자들의 실업지속기간의 결정요인은 서로 다르다는 것을 보인다. 모형을 이용하여 최근 대학 졸업자들이 노동시장에 신규로 참여하여 장기간 구직활동을 하는데 그 요인을 설명한다.

Keywords

References

  1. Budd, A., Levine, P., Smith, P., "Unemployment, Vacancies and the Long-Term Unemployed," in: Economic Journal, Vol.98, pp. 1071-1091, 1988. https://doi.org/10.2307/2233720
  2. Burdett, K, Kieffer, N, Mortenson, D, and Neumannm G., "A Markov Model of Employment, unemployment and Labor Force participation: Estimate from the DIME data, Discussion paper, 1981.
  3. Chung, K.L, A Course in Probability Theory, 3rd ed. Academic Press, 2001.
  4. Clark, K.,B "The Dynamics of Youth Unemployment", in Understanding Unemployment by Summers, L. H., The MIT Press, 1990.
  5. Clark, K. B and Summers, L.H., : "Labor Market Dynamics and Unemployment: A Reconsideration", Brookings Paper on Economic Activity 1, 1979, 13-72.
  6. Davis, S. J., "Fluctuations in the Face of Labor Reallocation", Carneigie‑Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 27, (Autumn 1987a)
  7. Davis, S. J., "Allocative Disturbances and Specific Capital in Real Business Cycle Theory", American Economic Review Vol 77, No 2, 1987.
  8. De Loo, Ivo, "The Applicability of Sectoral shift hypothesis in the Netherlands", Journal of Applied Economics, Vol III, No.1, p.57-69, 2000.
  9. Devine, T., and Kiefer, N. (1991), Empirical Labor Economics. The Search Approach, OUP, New York
  10. Franz, W., "Hysteresis in Economic Relationships: An Overview," in: W. Franz (ed.), Hysteresis Effects in Economic Models, Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg, pp. 1-17, 1990.
  11. Greene, W., Econometric Analysis, 2nd edition, Macmillan, NewYork, 1993.
  12. Hayes, M.G., "Comment: Lucas on involuntary unemployment", Cambridge Journal of Economics, Mar, 2006.
  13. Kiefer, N., "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," in: Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 26, pp. 646-679, 1988.
  14. Kennan, John., "The Duration of Strikes in U.S. Manufacturing" Journal of Econometrics 1985.
  15. Lilien, David, "Sectoral Shift and Unemployment", Journal of Political Economy, 1982, Vol.90, No 4.
  16. Porterba, J., M., "Reporting Errors and Labor Market Dynamicss", in Understanding Unemployment by Summers, L. H., The MIT Press, 1990.
  17. Taylor, H. M., and Karlin, S., An Introduction to Stochastic Modelling, Academic Press, 1984.
  18. Valetta, R., "Rising unemployment Duration in United states: Causes and Consequences", FRB of Sanfransisco, 2005.