한국해안·해양공학회논문집 (Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers)

  • 제24권1호
  • /
  • Pages.1-9
  • /
  • 2012
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  • 1976-8192(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2288-2227(eISSN)
한국해안·해양공학회 (Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers)
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한반도 연안 조위편차의 확률밀도함수

Probability Density Function of the Tidal Residuals in the Korean Coast

  • 조홍연 (한국해양연구원 해양환경보전연구부) ;
  • 강주환 (국립목포대학교 토목공학과)
  • Cho, Hong-Yeon (Marine Environment and Conservation Research Department, Korea Ocean RandD Institute) ;
  • Kang, Ju-Whan (Dept. of Civil Engineering, Mokpo National University)
  • 투고 : 2011.10.26
  • 심사 : 2012.01.28
  • 발행 : 2012.02.29
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초록

조위편차는 최근 기후변화에 의한 영향으로 연안 안전 방재 측면에서 매우 중요한 인자로 부각되고 있다. 태풍강도 등과 더불어 변화가 예상되는 조위편차는 해안구조물의 안전 및 기능검토에 필요한 기준해수면 결정에 기여하는 중요한 인자이다. 우리나라 연안 조위편차의 확률밀도함수는 음 양의 왜도와 정규분포보다 큰 돌도를 가지는 분포로, 정규분포로 근사화하는 방법은 한계가 있기 때문에 본 연구에서는 비모수적 방법인 Kernel 함수를 이용하여 확률밀도함수를 추정 제안하였다. 본 연구에서 제안된 확률밀도함수는 조위편차자료의 분포와 매우 우수한 일치수준을 보이고 있으며, 다양한 극값 추정에도 높은 수준의 정도를 보여주고 있다.

Tidal residual is being an important factor by the influence of the climate change in terms of the coastal safety and defense. It is one of the most important factor for the determination of the reference sea level in order to check the safety and performance of the coastal structures in company with the typhoon intensity variation. The probability density function (pdf) of tidal residuals in the Korean coasts have a non-ignorable skewness and high kurtosis. It is highly restricted to the application of the normal pdf assumption as an approximated pdf of tidal residuals. In this study, the pdf of tidal residuals estimated using the Kernel function is suggested as a more reliable and accurate pdf of tidal residuals than the normal function. This suggested pdf shows a good agreement with the empirical cumulative distribution function and histogram. It also gives the more accurate estimation result on the extreme values in comparison with the results based on the normal pdf assumption.

키워드

참고문헌

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피인용 문헌

  1. A Study on Maritime Traffic Characteristics according to Water Time(Multte) vol.21, pp.5, 2015, https://doi.org/10.7837/kosomes.2015.21.5.501
  2. Characteristics of Spatio-temporal Variability of Daily averaged Tidal Residuals in Korean Coasts vol.19, pp.6, 2013, https://doi.org/10.7837/kosomes.2013.19.6.561
  3. The Cause of Abnormal Tidal Residuals Along the Coast of the Yellow Sea in November 2013 vol.22, pp.4, 2016, https://doi.org/10.7837/kosomes.2016.22.4.344