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Studies for Reliability-corrected Cost Estimation Methodology of Launch Vehicle Development

신뢰성 보정된 발사체 개발비용 추정방안 연구

  • 김홍래 (한국항공대학교 항공우주 및 기계공학과) ;
  • 유동서 (한국항공대학교 항공우주 및 기계공학과) ;
  • 장영근 (한국항공대학교 항공우주 및 기계공학부)
  • Received : 2011.11.04
  • Accepted : 2012.03.05
  • Published : 2012.04.01

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to perform the reliability-corrected development cost estimation of the launch vehicle at the conceptual design phase. In order to estimate the launch vehicle development cost, the estimation method based on the independent variable such as the rocket performance and dry mass has been mainly implemented up to now. This approach has made the approximate cost estimation possible, however, the cost variation according to the reliability requirement could not be reflected. In this paper, the cost estimation methodology that introduces the reliability factor in addition to the performance and mass in the TRANSCOST model is presented in order to improve the limitation of current cost estimation method. The development cost of KSLV(Korea Space Launch Vehicle)-II is estimated on the basis of this newly implemented concept with reliability as an added parameter.

본 연구에서는 발사체의 개념설계 단계 동안 성능 변수뿐만 아니라 신뢰성에 따른 개발비용 추정방안을 분석하고자 하였다. 과거에는 발사체의 개발비용을 예측하기 위해서 주로 발사체의 성능과 건조 질량 등을 독립변수로 하는 추정 방법이 많이 이용되었다. 이러한 접근 방법은 비교적 근사하였지만 신뢰성 수준에 따른 비용 변화를 반영할 수 없기 때문에 원하는 신뢰성을 가진 발사체의 개발비용을 근접하게 예측하기는 쉽지 않았다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 비용추정 방법의 한계를 개선하기 위해 성능과 질량을 기반으로 한 비용 모델인 TRANSCOST에 신뢰성 개념을 도입하여 발사체 비용을 추정할 수 있는 방법론을 제시하였다. 이를 기반으로 신뢰성에 따른 한국형발사체(KSLV- II)의 개발비용을 추정했다.

Keywords

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