대한교통학회지 (Journal of Korean Society of Transportation)

  • 제30권6호
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  • Pages.37-46
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  • 2012
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  • 1229-1366(pISSN)
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  • 2234-4217(eISSN)
대한교통학회 (Korean Society of Transportation)
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고령운전자 운전 및 신체특성을 반영한 교통사고 분석 연구

Analysis of Elderly Drivers' Accident Models Considering Operations and Physical Characteristics

  • 투고 : 2012.08.09
  • 심사 : 2012.11.19
  • 발행 : 2012.12.31
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초록

65세 이상 고령운전자의 경우 지난 10년 새 교통사고건수는 3만 7,000건에서 27만 4,000건으로 무려 640.5% 증가되었다. 이는 전체사고에서 차지하는 비율이 1.2%에서 3.1배 증가한 3.7%를 차지하고 있는 것으로 교통안전 관련기관에서는 여러 대책을 강구하고 있다. 무엇보다 고령운전자의 행동특성 및 신체특성에 대한 심층연구를 통해 안전대책과 연계하는 방안이 중요하다 할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 고령운전자의 행동특성을 측정할 수 있는 운전자 적성검사(Driving Aptitude) 항목과 교통사고 자료를 토대로 고령운전자 운전특성과 사고특성을 연결한 실증연구를 수행하였다. 영향모형 개발을 위해 활용한 방법론은 영과잉 회귀모형을 적용하였고, ZIP 회귀모형과 ZINB 회귀모형에 대하여 베이지안 추론을 이용한 사고예측 모형을 선택하였다. AAE분석결과 ZIP 회귀모형이 적합하며, 3가지 변수속도예측, 주의전환, 인지능력이 고령자사고와 영향관계에 있음을 확인할 수 있었다.

The number of traffic accidents caused by elderly drivers over the age of 65 has surged over the past ten years from 37,000 to 274,000 cases. The proportion of elderly drivers' accidents has jumped 3.1 times from 1.2% to 3.7% out of all traffic accidents, and traffic safety organizations are pursuing diverse measures to address the situation. Above all, connecting safety measures with an in-depth research on behavioral and physical characteristics of elderly drivers will prove vital. This study conducted an empirical research linking the driving characteristics and traffic accidents by elderly drivers based on the Driving Aptitude Test items and traffic accident data, which enabled the measurement of behavioral characteristics of elderly drivers. In developing the Influence Model, we applied the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model and selected an accident prediction model based on the Bayesian Influence in regards to the ZIP regression model and the zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model. According to the results of the AAE analysis, the ZIP regression model was more appropriate and it was found that three variables? prediction of velocity, diversion, and cognitive ability? had a relation of influence with traffic accidents caused by elderly drivers.

키워드

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  2. A Comparative Study on Job Satisfaction of Road Freight Transportation Industry Workers by Type of Employment vol.33, pp.4, 2015, https://doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2015.33.4.368
  3. Traffic Safety Technology Proposal for Chungcheong Region vol.16, pp.2, 2015, https://doi.org/10.5762/KAIS.2015.16.2.1524
  4. 머신러닝 기반의 수도권 지역 고령운전자 차대사람 사고심각도 분류 연구 vol.19, pp.4, 2012, https://doi.org/10.14400/jdc.2021.19.4.025