Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회논문집)

The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회)
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Vulnerability Assessment of Water Supply in Agricultural Reservoir Utilizing Probability Distribution and Reliability Analysis Methods

농업용 저수지 공급량과 수요량의 확률분포 및 신뢰성 해석 기법을 활용한 물 공급 취약성 평가

  • 남원호 (서울대학교 생태조경.지역시스템공학부) ;
  • 김태곤 (서울대학교 생태조경.지역시스템공학부) ;
  • 최진용 (서울대학교 조경.지역시스템공학부, 농업생명과학연구원) ;
  • 이정재 (서울대학교 조경.지역시스템공학부, 농업생명과학연구원)
  • Received : 2012.02.01
  • Accepted : 2012.02.27
  • Published : 2012.03.31
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Abstract

The change of rainfall pattern and hydrologic factors due to climate change increases the occurrence probability of agricultural reservoir water shortage. Water supply assessment of reservoir is usually performed current reservoir level compared to historical water levels or the simulation of reservoir operation based on the water budget analysis. Since each reservoir has the native property for watershed, irrigation district and irrigation water requirement, it is necessary to improve the assessment methods of agricultural reservoir water capability about water resources system. This study proposed a practical methods that water supply vulnerability assessment for an agricultural reservoir based on a concept of probabilistic reliability. The vulnerability assessment of water supply is calculated from probability distribution of water demand condition and water supply condition that influences on water resources management and reservoir operations. The water supply vulnerability indices are estimated to evaluate the performance of water supply on agricultural reservoir system, and thus it is recommended a more objective method to evaluate water supply reliability.

Keywords

References

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