Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Estimating Quantiles of Extreme Rainfall Using a Mixed Gumbel Distribution Model

혼합 검벨분포모형을 이용한 확률강우량의 산정

  • Yoon, Phil-Yong (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University) ;
  • Kim, Tae-Woong (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University) ;
  • Yang, Jeong-Seok (School of Construction System Engineering, Kookmin University) ;
  • Lee, Seung-Oh (Dept. of Civil and Urban Engineering, Hongik University)
  • 윤필용 (한양대학교 대학원 건설환경공학과) ;
  • 김태웅 (한양대학교 건설환경공학과) ;
  • 양정석 (국민대학교 건설시스템공학부) ;
  • 이승오 (홍익대학교 건설도시공학부)
  • Received : 2011.06.13
  • Accepted : 2012.01.02
  • Published : 2012.03.31
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Abstract

Recently, due to various climate variabilities, extreme rainfall events have been occurring all over the world. Extreme rainfall events in Korea mainly result from the summer typhoon storms and the localized convective storms. In order to estimate appropriate quantiles for extreme rainfall, this study considered the probability behavior of daily rainfall from the typhoons and the convective storms which compose the annual maximum rainfalls (AMRs). The conventional rainfall frequency analysis estimates rainfall quantiles based on the assumption that the AMRs are extracted from an identified single population, whereas this study employed a mixed distribution function to incorporate the different statistical characteristics of two types of rainfalls into the hydrologic frequency analysis. Selecting 15 rainfall gauge stations where contain comparatively large number of measurements of daily rainfall, for various return periods, quantiles of daily rainfalls were estimated and analyzed in this study. The results indicate that the mixed Gumbel distribution locally results in significant gains and losses in quantiles. This would provide useful information in designing flood protection systems.

최근 다양한 기후변동성으로 인해 전 세계적으로 극한호우사상이 동시다발적으로 일어나고 있다. 우리나라의 극한호우사상은 주로 여름철 태풍으로 인한 호우와 국지성 집중호우에 의해서 발생한다. 극한호우사상에 대한 적절한 확률강우량을 추정하기 위해서, 본 연구에서는 연최대치일강우를 태풍으로 인한 강우와 집중호우로 인한 강우로 구분하여 확률적 거동을 고려하였다. 일반적인 강우빈도해석법은 연최대치강우가 단일 모집단을 이룬다고 가정하여 단일 분포함수를 적용하여 확률강우량을 추정하는 반면, 본 연구에서는 연최대치강우를 구성하는 두 가지 호우의 통계적 특성을 수문빈도해석에서 고려하기 위해, 혼합 분포함수를 적용하였다. 비교적 긴 관측강우자료를 보유한 15개 지점을 선정하여, 일강우량에 대한 확률강우량을 산정하고 비교분석을 실시하였다. 혼합 검벨분포모형에 의한 확률강우량은 단일 검벨분포함수를 적용한 확률강우량과 비교하여 지역에 따라 증감이 나타났으며, 이러한 결과는 홍수방어시스템의 계획 및 설계에서 유용한 정보를 제공할 것이다.

Keywords

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