Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods

The Korean Statistical Society (한국통계학회)
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Travel Behavior Analysis for Short-Term KTX Passenger Demand Forecasting

KTX 단기수요 예측을 위한 통행행태 분석

  • Kim, Han-Soo (Korail Research Institute, Korea Railroad Corporation) ;
  • Yun, Dong-Hee (Deajeon-Chungnam HQ, Korea Railroad Corporation) ;
  • Lee, Sung-Duk (Department of Information and Statistics, Chungbuk National University)
  • Received : 20110600
  • Accepted : 20111100
  • Published : 2012.01.30
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Abstract

This study analyzes the travel behavior for short-term demand forecasting model of KTX. This research suggests the following. First, the outlier criteria is considered to appropriate twice the standard deviation of the traffic. Second, the result of a homogeneity test using ANOVA analysis has been divided into weekdays(Mon Thu and weekends(Fri Sun). Third, a cluster analysis for O/D pairs using trip frequency, traffic averages and th distance between stations was performed.

본연구는 KTX의 단기수요예측 방향을 설정하기 위한 통행행태 분석이 목적이다. 분석결과는 첫째, 이상치 판단기준은 통행량 표준편차의 2배가 적정한 것으로 판단된다. 둘째, ANOVA 분석을 이용하여 요일별 통행량의 동질여부를 분석한 결과 주중(월~목)과 주말(금~일)로 구분되었다. 셋째, 통행빈도, 통행량균, 통행거리를 이용하여 철도역간 O/D에 대해 군집분석을 시행하였다.

Keywords

References

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