Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회지)

Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회)
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Developmental Rate Equations for Predicting Blooming Date of 'Yumyeong' (Prunus persica) Peach Trees

발육 속도 모델을 이용한 복숭아 '유명'의 개화기 예측

  • Yun, Seok Kyu (Fruit Research Division, National Institute of Horticultural and Herbal Science) ;
  • Chung, Kyeong Ho (Fruit Research Division, National Institute of Horticultural and Herbal Science) ;
  • Yoon, Ik Koo (Fruit Research Division, National Institute of Horticultural and Herbal Science) ;
  • Nam, Eun Young (Fruit Research Division, National Institute of Horticultural and Herbal Science) ;
  • Han, Jeom Hwa (Fruit Research Division, National Institute of Horticultural and Herbal Science) ;
  • Yu, Duk Jun (Research Institute for Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Lee, Hee Jae (Research Institute for Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University)
  • Received : 2012.10.30
  • Accepted : 2012.11.15
  • Published : 2012.12.30
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Abstract

To predict the blooming date of 'Yumyeong' peach trees, the models for flower bud developmental rate (DVR) were constructed. The DVRs were calculated from the demanded times at controlled air temperatures. The branches of 'Yumyeong' peach trees were incubated at three different temperatures of 9.7, 15.2, and $18.9^{\circ}C$. The DVRs were also constructed with blooming dates and air temperatures in the field, collected from 1979 to 2008 at the experimental orchard of National Institute of Horticultural and Herbal Science, Suwon, Korea. All the DVRs increased linearly or exponentially with air temperature. The DVR equations evaluated under controlled air temperatures were y=0.0018x+0.0051 and y=$0.0125e^{0.0603x}$. The DVR equations under field conditions were calculated as y=0.0039x-0.0112 and y=$0.0062e^{0.1512x}$. These DVR equations offer developmental indices and predict the date for blooming with air temperature data. These DVR equations were validated against the blooming data observed in the field. When the blooming dates were calculated with exponential DVR equations and daily air temperature data, the root mean squared errors between the observed and predicted dates were around 2 days. These results suggest that the DVR models are useful to predict the blooming date of 'Yumyeong' peach trees.

복숭아 '유명'의 개화기 예측을 위해 항온 조건과 포장 조건에서의 온도에 대한 발육 속도(DVR) 계산식을 도출하고, 이 계산식을 개화기 예측에 이용할 수 있는지 검토하였다. 항온 조건에서 개화 소요일은 복숭아 가지를 수삽하여 구하고, 포장 조건에서는 1979년부터 2008년까지 관측한 자료를 이용하여 계산하였다. 포장 조건에서의 온도 자료는 $5^{\circ}C$ 이상의 대기적산 온도 값을 이용하였다. 개화 소요일을 이용하여 구한 DVR값과 온도 자료를 이용하여 DVR 선형과 지수 함수식을 도출할 수 있었다. 항온 실험에서 도출한 개화기 예측 DVR 선형과 지수 함수식은 각각 y=0.0018x+0.0051과 y=$0.0125e^{0.0603x}$이었다. 포장 조건에서 도출한 개화기 예측 DVR 선형과 지수 함수식은 각각 y=0.0039x-0.0112과 y=$0.0062e^{0.1512x}$이었다. 본 연구에서 계산한 복숭아 '유명' 품종의 개화기 예측 DVR 지수 함수식과 일 평균 기온 자료를 이용하여 복숭아 개화기를 예측한 결과, 적합도 검정 평균제곱 오차(RMSE)가 항온 실험에서는 2.31이었으며, 포장 조사에서는 1.83이었다. 이러한 결과는 본 연구에서 도출한 복숭아 '유명' 품종의 개화기 예측 DVR 함수식이 개화 전 발육 속도 계산에 유용하고, 개화기 예측에도 이용할 수 있다는 것을 의미한다.

Keywords

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