Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society (한국태양에너지학회 논문집)

The Korean Solar Energy Society (한국태양에너지학회)
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Prediction of long-term wind speed and capacity factor using Measure-Correlate-Predict method

측정-상관-예측법을 이용한 장기간 풍속 및 설비이용률의 예측

  • Ko, Kyung-Nam (Multidisciplinary Graduate School Program for Wind Energy, Jeju National University) ;
  • Huh, Jong-Chul (Faculty of Mechanical System Engineering, Jeju National University)
  • 고경남 (제주대학교 대학원 풍력특성화협동과) ;
  • 허종철 (제주대학교 기계시스템공학부)
  • Received : 2012.08.14
  • Accepted : 2012.12.20
  • Published : 2012.12.30
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Abstract

Long-term variations in wind speed and capacity factor(CF) on Seongsan wind farm of Jeju Island, South Korea were derived statistically. The selected areas for this study were Subji, having a year wind data at 30m above ground level, Sinsan, having 30-year wind data at 10m above ground level and Seongsan wind farm, where long-term CF was predicted. The Measure-Correlate-Predict module of WindPRO was used to predict long-tem wind characteristics at Seongsan wind farm. Eachyear's CF was derived from the estimated 30-year time series wind data by running WAsP module. As a result, for the 30-year CFs, Seongsan wind farm was estimated to have 8.3% for the coefficien to fvariation, CV, and-16.5% ~ 13.2% for the range of variation, RV. It was predicted that the annual CF at Seongsan wind farm varied within about ${\pm}4%$.

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