DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

하절기 기온상승으로 인한 사망의 기여부담 변화

Changes in the Attributable Burden of High Temperatures on Deaths

  • 투고 : 2012.08.08
  • 심사 : 2012.11.06
  • 발행 : 2012.12.31

초록

Objectives: Due to global warming resulting from climate change, there has been increasing interest in the relationship between temperature and mortality. These temperature-related deaths depend on diverse conditions related to a given place and person, as well as on time. This study examined changes in the impact of high temperatures on death in summer, using the effect and burden of elevated temperatures on deaths in Seoul and Daegu. Methods: A Poisson regression model was used to estimate short-term temperature effects on mortality. Temperature-related risks were divided into three time periods of equal length (1996-2000, 2001-2005, and 2006-2010). In addition, in order to compare the impact of high temperatures on deaths, this study calculated the proportion of attributable deaths to population, which simultaneously considers the threshold and the slope above the threshold. Results: The effect and burden of high temperatures on deaths is high in Daegu. However, the impact (i.e. the effect and burden) of elevated summer temperatures on deaths has declined over the past 15 years. Sensitivity analyses using alternative thresholds show the robustness of these findings. Conclusion: This study suggests that the attributable burden of high temperatures on deaths to be more plausible than relative risk or threshold for comparing the health impact of high temperatures across populations. Moreover, these results contain important implications for the development or the adjustment of present and future strategies and policies for controlling the temperature-related health burden on populations.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Basu R, Samet JM. Relation between elevated ambient temperature and mortality: a review of the epidemiologic evidence. Epidemiologic Reviews. 2002; 24: 190-202. https://doi.org/10.1093/epirev/mxf007
  2. Gosling SN, Lowe JA, McGregor GR, et al. Association between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature. Climatic Change. 2009; 92: 299-341. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9441-x
  3. Kosatsky T. The 2003 heat wave European heat waves. Euro Surveill. 2005; 10: 148-149.
  4. Kaiser R, Tertre AL, Schwarta J, et al. The effect of the 1995 heat wave in chicago on all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Am J Public Health. 2007; 97: S158-S162. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2006.100081
  5. Kysely J, Kim J. Mortality during heat waves in South Korea, 1991 to 2005: How exceptional was the 1994 heat wave? Climate Res. 2009; 38: 105-116. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00775
  6. Luber G, McGeehin M. Climate Change and Extreme Heat Events. Am J Prev Med. 2008; 35: 429-435. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.021
  7. Basu R. High ambient temperature and mortality: a review of epidemiologic studies from 2001 to 2008. Environmental Health. 2009; 8: 40. https://doi.org/10.1186/1476-069X-8-40
  8. Hajat S, Kosatky T. Heat-related mortality: a review and exploration of heterogeneity. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health. 2010; 64: 753- 760. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.2009.087999
  9. Patz JA, Campbell-Lendrum D, Holloway T, Foley JA. Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature. 2005; 438: 310-317. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04188
  10. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge, University Press. 2007. Cambridge, UK.
  11. Chestnut LG, Breffle WS, Smith JB, Kalkstein LS. Analysis of differences in hot-weather-related mortality across 44 U.S. metropolitan areas. Environmental Science & Policy. 1998; 1: 59-70.
  12. Donaldson GC, Keatinge WR, Nayha S. Changes in summer temperature and heat-related mortality since 1971 in North Carolina, South Finland, and southeast England. Environ Res. 2003; 91: 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0013-9351(02)00002-6
  13. Kalkstein LS and Greene JS. An evaluation of climate/ mortality relationships in large U.S. cities and the possible impacts of a climate change. Environ Health Perspect. 1997; 105: 84-93. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.9710584
  14. Keatinge WR, Donaldson GC, Cordioli E, et al. Heat related mortality in warm and cold regions of Europe: observational study. BMJ. 2000; 321: 670- 673. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.321.7262.670
  15. McGeehin MA, Mirabelli M. The potential impact of climate variability and change on temperaturerelated morbidity and mortality in the United States. Environ Health Perspect. 2001; 109: 185-189. https://doi.org/10.2307/3435008
  16. Seretakis D et al. Changing seasonality of mortality from coronary heart disease. JAMA. 1997; 278: 1012-1014. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.1997.03550120072036
  17. Davis RE, Knappenberger PC, Novicoff WM, Michaels PJ. Changing heat-related mortality in the United States. Environ Health Perspect. 2003; 111: 1712-1718. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.6336
  18. Davis RE, Knappenberger PC, Novicoff WM, Michaels PJ. Decadal changes in summer mortality in U.S. cities. Int J Biometeorol. 2003; 47: 166-175.
  19. Linares C and Diaz J. Impact of high temperatures on hospital admissions: comparative analysis with previous studies about mortality (Madrid). Eur J Public Health. 2008; 18: 317-322. https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckm108
  20. Michelozzi P, Accetta G, De Sario M, et al. High temperature and hospitalizations for cardiovascular and respiratory causes in 12 European cities. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2009; 179: 383-389. https://doi.org/10.1164/rccm.200802-217OC
  21. Schwartz J, Samet JM, Patz JA. Hospital admissions for heart disease: the effects of temperature and humidity. Epidemiology. 2004; 15: 755-761. https://doi.org/10.1097/01.ede.0000134875.15919.0f
  22. Baccini M, Biggeri A, Accetta G, et al. Heat effects on mortality in 15 European cities. Epidemiology. 2008; 19: 711-719. https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0b013e318176bfcd
  23. Anderson BG, Bell ML. Weather-related mortality: how heat, cold, and heat waves affect mortality in the United States. Epidemiology. 2009; 20: 205-213. https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0b013e318190ee08
  24. McMichael AJ, Wilkinson P, Kovats RS, et al. International study of temperature, heat and urban mortality: the 'ISOTHURM' project. Int J Epidemiol. 2008; 37: 1121-1131. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyn086
  25. Armstrong B. Models for the relationship between ambient temperature and daily mortality. Epidemiology. 2006; 17: 624-631. https://doi.org/10.1097/01.ede.0000239732.50999.8f
  26. Braga AF, Zanobetti A, Schwarts J. The time course of weather-related deaths. Epidemiology. 2001; 12: 662-667. https://doi.org/10.1097/00001648-200111000-00014
  27. Hajat S, Armstrong BG, Gouveia N, Wilkinson P. Mortality displacement of heat-related deaths: a comparison of Delhi, Sao Paulo, and London. Epidemiology. 2005; 16: 613-620. https://doi.org/10.1097/01.ede.0000164559.41092.2a
  28. Yu W, Mengersen K, Hu W, et al. Assessing the relationship between global warming and mortality: Lag effects of temperature fluctuations by age and mortality categories. Environmental Pollution. 2011; 159: 1789-1793. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2011.03.039
  29. Kim H, Ha J, Park J. High temperature, heat index, and mortality in 6 major cities in South Korea. International Arch Environ Occup Health. 2006; 61: 265-270. https://doi.org/10.3200/AEOH.61.6.265-270
  30. Chung JY, Honda Y, Hong YC, Pan XC, Guo YL, Kim H. Ambient temperature and mortality: An international study in four capital cities of East Asia. Sci Total Environ. 2009; 408: 390-396. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.09.009
  31. Ha J, Kim H, Hajat S. Effect of previous-winter mortality on the association between summer temperature and mortality in South Korea. Environ Health Perspect. 2011; 119: 542-546. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1002080
  32. Barnett AG, Tong S, Clements AC. What measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality? Environ Res. 2010; 110: 604-611. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2010.05.006
  33. Akaike H. Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principal. In: Petrov BN, Caski F, editors. Second International Symposium on Information Theory. Budapest: Akademial Kiado; 1973. pp, 267. 81.
  34. Honda Y, Kabuto M, Ono M, Uchiyama I. Determination of optimum daily maximum temperature using climate data. Environ Health and Prev Med. 2007; 12: 209-216. https://doi.org/10.1265/ehpm.12.209
  35. Bruzzi P, Green SB, Byar DP, et al. Estimating the population attributable risk for multiple risk factors using case-control data. Am J Epidemiol. 1985; 122: 904-914. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a114174
  36. Dominici F, McDermott A, Hastie T. Improved semiparametric time series models of air pollution and mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 2004; 99: 938-948. https://doi.org/10.1198/016214504000000656
  37. Pattenden S, Nikiforov B, Armstrong BG. Mortality and temperature in Sofia and London. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health. 2003; 57: 628- 633. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.57.8.628
  38. Kim SY, Lee JT, Hong YC, et al. Determining the threshold effect of ozone on daily mortality: an analysis of ozone and mortality in Seoul, Korea, 1995-1999. Environ Res. 2004; 94: 113-119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2003.09.006
  39. Ha J, Shin Y, Kim H. Distributed lag effects in the relationship between temperature and mortality in three major cities in South Korea. Sci Total Environ. 2011; 409: 3274-3280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.05.034
  40. Armstrong BG, Chalabi Z, Fenn B, et al. Association of mortality with high temperatures in a temperate climate: England and Wales. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2011; 65: 340-345. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.2009.093161
  41. Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Kovats S, Wilkinson P. The effect of high temperatures on cause-specific mortality in England and Wales. Occup Environ Med. 2012; 69: 56-61. https://doi.org/10.1136/oem.2010.059782
  42. Curriero FC, Heiner KS, Samet JM, et al. Temperature and mortality in 11 cities of the eastern United States. Am J Epidemiol. 2002; 155: 80-87. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/155.1.80
  43. Kysel J, Kriz B. Decreased impacts of the 2003 heat waves on mortality in the Czech Republic: an improved response? Int J Biometeorol. 2008; 52: 733-745. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-008-0166-3
  44. Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention. Heat-related illnesses and deaths-United States, 1994-1995. MMWR. 1995; 44: 465-468.
  45. Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention. Heat-related mortality-Chicago, July 1995. MMWR. 1995; 44: 577-579.
  46. Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention. Heat-wave-related mortality-Milwaukee, Wisconsin, July 1995. MMWR. 1996; 45: 505-507.
  47. Kilbourne EM, Choi K, Jones TS, Thacker SB. Risk factors for heatstroke: a case-control study. JAMA. 1982; 247: 3332-3336. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.1982.03320490030031
  48. Rogot E, Sorlie PD, Backlund E. Air-conditioning and mortality in hot weather. Am J Epidemiol. 1992; 136: 106-116. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a116413
  49. Ministry of Health and Welfare. Korea National Health Accounts and Total Health Expenditure in 2010. 2011; http://english.mw.go.kr/.
  50. Medina-Ramon M, Schwartz J. Temperature, temperature extremes, and mortality: a study of acclimatisation and effect modification in 50 US cities. Occup Environ Med. 2007; 64: 827-833. https://doi.org/10.1136/oem.2007.033175
  51. Ren C, Williams GM, Morawska L, et al. Ozone modifies association between temperature and cardiovascular mortality: analysis of the NMMAPS data. Occup Environ Med. 2008; 65: 255-260. https://doi.org/10.1136/oem.2007.033878
  52. Basu R, Ostro BD. A multicounty analysis identifying the populations vulnerable to mortality associated with high ambient temperature in California. Am J Epidemiol. 2008; 168: 632-637. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwn170
  53. Zanobetti A, Schwartz J. Temperature and mortality in nine US cities. Epidemiology. 2008; 19: 563- 570. https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0b013e31816d652d
  54. Kovats RS, Hajat S. Heat stress and public health: a critical review. Annu Rev Public Health. 2008; 29: 41-55. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.publhealth.29.020907.090843
  55. Huang C, Barnett AG, Wang X, et al. Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review. Environ Health Perspect.. 2011; 119: 1681-1690. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1103456