Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Atmospheric Circulation of Pacific-Japan (PJ) and Typhoon-induced Extremes in the Nakdong River Basin

PJ 대기패턴과 태풍에 의한 낙동강 유역의 수문학적 극치 사상의 지역적 특성 변화 분석

  • Kim, Jong-Suk (Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Seoul) ;
  • Yoon, Sun-Kwon (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, KAIST) ;
  • Moon, Young-Il (Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Seoul) ;
  • Lee, Joo-Heon (Department of Civil Engineering, Joongbu University)
  • 김종석 (서울시립대학교 공과대학 토목공학과) ;
  • 윤선권 (한국과학기술원 건설 및 환경공학과 미래도시연구소) ;
  • 문영일 (서울시립대학교 공과대학 토목공학과) ;
  • 이주헌 (중부대학교 공과대학 토목공학과)
  • Received : 2012.03.16
  • Accepted : 2012.09.04
  • Published : 2012.12.31
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Abstract

The East Asia (EA) region including China, Taiwan, Japan, and Korea are especially vulnerable to hydrometerological extremes during the boreal summer (June-September). Therefore, this study pursued an exploratory analysis to improve better understanding of the potential impacts of the PJ pattern on WNP Tropical cyclone (TC) activity and TC-affected extremes based on the Korean Nakdong River Basin. The results show that during the positive PJ years, the large-scale atmospheric environments tend more favorable for the TC activity than those in the negative PJ years. KP-influenced TCs during the positive (negative) PJ years are likely to occur more southwestward (northeastward), recurve at more northwestward (northeastward) locations, and indicate increase (decrease) in frequency over Korea and Japan. Consequently, TCs making landfall are more exhibited over the southeastern portions of South Korea during the positive PJ years.

한반도를 포함한 동아시아 지역은 여름철에 수문기상학적 극치사상에 취약한 지역이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 대표적인 동아시아 지역의 대기순환 패턴인 Pacific-Japan (PJ) 패턴을 중심으로 북서태평양 지역의 태풍 활동 특성을 분석하였다. 특히, 한반도에 영향을 미치는 태풍을 중심으로 낙동강 유역의 태풍에 의해 유발된 여름철(June-September) 강수의 지역적 특성 변화를 진단하였다. 분석 결과, 양(+)의 PJ 기간에 발생하는 대기순환패턴의 변화는 태풍의 활동에 보다 유리한 작용을 하는 것으로 나타났다. 한반도에 영향을 미치는 태풍에 대한 진로 분석 결과, 양(+) PJ 기간동안 태풍이 주로 남서쪽으로 향하는 경향이 있으며, 음(-)의 PJ 기간에는 북동쪽으로 향하는 경향이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 태풍 진로의 전향점(recurving location)은 양(+)의 PJ 기간에는 보다 북서쪽에 위치하며, 음(-)의 PJ 기간에는 보다 북동쪽에 치우쳐 있음이 분석되었다. 따라서, 음(-)의 PJ기간 보다 양(+)의 PJ 기간에 태풍의 활동이 활발하며, 낙동강유역에서 태풍에 의한 강수가 통계적으로 유의한 증가패턴이 뚜렷하게 발생하고 있는 것으로 확인되었다.

Keywords

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