Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods

The Korean Statistical Society (한국통계학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

An Estimation of an Old Age Mortality Rate Using CK Model and Relational Model

  • Jung, Kyunam (Department of Statistics, Sungkyunkwan University) ;
  • Kim, Donguk (Department of Statistics, Sungkyunkwan University)
  • Received : 2012.10.23
  • Accepted : 2012.11.05
  • Published : 2012.11.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Due to a rapidly aging society, the future Korea mortality rate is important for planning national financial strategies and social security policies. Old age mortality statistics are very limited in their ability to project a future mortality rate; therefore, it is essential to accurately estimate the old age mortality rate. In this paper, we show that the CK model with a Relational model as a base model provides accurate estimates of old age mortality rates.

Keywords

References

  1. Baek, J. S. and Jeong, M. O. (2012). Study on Mortality Models for Population Projection, Statistical Research Institute
  2. Boleslawski, L. and Tableau, E. (2002). Comparing theoretical age patterns of mortality beyond the age of 80 in forecasting mortality in developed countries, European Association for Population Studies, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 127-155.
  3. Brass, W. (1971). On Scale of Mortality, Biological Aspects of Demography, Taylor & Francis, London.
  4. Buettner, T. (2002). Approaches and experience in projecting mortality patterns for the oldest-old, North American Actuarial Journal, 6, 14-29. https://doi.org/10.1080/10920277.2002.10596053
  5. Coale, A. and Demeny, D. (1966). Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations, Prinston University Press, Prinston.
  6. Coale, A. and Guo, G. (1989). Revised regional model life tables at very low levels of mortality, Population Index, 55, 613-643. https://doi.org/10.2307/3644567
  7. Coale, A. J. and Kisher, E. E. (1990). Defects in data on old-age mortality in the United States: New procedures for calculating mortality schedules and life tables at the highest ages, Asian and Pacific Population Forum, 4, 1-32.
  8. Gompertz, B. (1825). On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies, Philosophical Transactions of Royal Society( Series A), 115, 513-583. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstl.1825.0026
  9. Greville, T. N. E. (1981). Moving-weighting-average smoothing extended to the extremities of the data, Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 39-55.
  10. Heligman, L. and Pollard, J. H. (1980). The age pattern of mortality, Journal of the Institute of Acuaries, 107, 49-80. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020268100040257
  11. Himes, C. L., Preston, S. H. and Condran, G. A. (1994). A relational model of mortality at older ages in low mortality countries, Population Studies, 48, 269-291. https://doi.org/10.1080/0032472031000147796
  12. Kim, S. Y., Kim, K. W. and Park, Y. S. (2011). An extension of mortality for oldest-Old age in Korea, Survey Research, 12, 1-26.
  13. Statistics Korea. Life tables for Korea, 2001-2010.
  14. Thatcher, A. R., Kannisto, V. and Vaupel, J. W. (1999). The Force of Mortality at Ages 80 to 120 in Monographs on Population Aging 5, Odense University Press.
  15. United Nations (1982). Model Life Tables for Developing Countries, United Nations, New York.
  16. Wilmoth, J. R. (1995). Are mortality rates falling at extreme high ages? An investigation based on a model proposed by Coale and Kisher, Population Studies, 49, 281-295. https://doi.org/10.1080/0032472031000148516

Cited by

  1. Comparison of Mortality Estimate and Prediction by the Period of Time Series Data Used vol.26, pp.6, 2013, https://doi.org/10.5351/KJAS.2013.26.6.1019