DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

인천송도신도시 풍화토층 출현심도의 국부적 불확실성

Local Uncertainty of the Depth to Weathered Soil at Incheon Songdo New City

  • 김동휘 (SK건설 Infra기술1팀) ;
  • 고성권 (포스코건설 베트남사업본부) ;
  • 이우진 (고려대학교 건축.사회환경공학부)
  • Kim, Dong-Hee (Infrastructure Engineering Team, SK E&C Co.) ;
  • Ko, Sung-Kwon (Vietnam Business Unit, Posco E&C Co.) ;
  • Lee, Woo-Jin (School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engrg., Korea Univ.)
  • 투고 : 2011.09.30
  • 심사 : 2012.11.11
  • 발행 : 2012.11.28

초록

일부 지점에서 수행된 시추조사결과를 이용하여 미조사구간의 지층분포를 추정하는 경우, 예측하고자 하는 변수들의 공간적인 분포 추정뿐만 아니라 추정결과에 수반되는 불확실성을 정량적으로 평가하는 것도 중요하다. 본 논문에서는 송도신도시 풍화토층 출현심도 추정결과의 국부적 불확실성을 지시자 방법을 이용하여 평가하였다. 지시자 방법을 이용하여 작성한 각 위치에서의 조건부 누적분포함수의 평균을 이용하여 송도신도시 풍화토층 출현심도의 공간적 분포를 추정하였다. 또한, 조건부 누적분포함수와 손실함수를 이용하여 송도신도시의 최적 풍화토층 출현심도를 결정하였다. 본 논문에서 이용한 손실함수를 고려할 수 있는 설계방법이 지반공학분야에도 잘 적용될 수 있음을 확인하였다.

Since geologic data are often sampled at sparse locations, it is important not only to predict attribute values at unsampled locations, but also to assess the uncertainty attached to the prediction. In this paper, the assessment of the local uncertainty of prediction for the depth to weathered soil was performed by using the indicator kriging. A conditional cumulative distribution function (ccdf) was first modeled, and then E-type estimate was computed for the spatial distribution of the depth to the weathered soil. Also, optimal estimate of spatial distribution for the depth to weathered soil was determined by using ccdf and loss function. The design procedure and method considering the minimum expected loss presented in this paper can be used in the decision-making process for geotechnical engineering design.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Kim, D. H., Ryu, D. W., Choi, Y. M., and Lee, W. J (2010a), "Application of Kriging and Inverse Distance Weighting Method for the Estimation of Geo-Layer of Songdo Area in Incheon", Journal of Korean Geotechnical Society(KGS), Vol.26, No.1, pp.5-19.
  2. Kim, D. H., Ryu, D. W., Lee, J. H., Choi, I. G., Kim, J. K., and Lee, W. J. (2010b), "Comparative Studies of Kriging Methods for Estimation of Geo-Layer Distribution of Songdo International City in Incheon", Journal of Korean Geotechnical Society(KGS), Vol.26, No.5, pp.57-64.
  3. Kim, D. H., Ryu, D. W., Choi, Y. H., Park, J. G., and Lee, W. J. (2011), "Influence of Loss Function on Determination of Optimal Thickness of Consolidating Layer for Songdo New City", Journal of Korean Geotechnical Society(KGS), Vol.27, No.8, pp.54-61. https://doi.org/10.7843/kgs.2011.27.8.051
  4. Kim, H. T., Lee, H. J., Kim, Y. U., Kim, J. h., and Kim, H. S. (2002), "Prediction of Long-term Settlement in the Big Reclamation Site Using GIS", Journal of Korean Geotechnical Society(KGS), Vol.18, No.2, pp.107-121.
  5. Ryu, D. W., Kim, T. K., and Heo, J. S. (2003), "A Study on Geostatistical simulation Technique for the Uncertainty Modeling of RMR", Tunnel & Underground, Vol.13, No.2, pp.87-99.
  6. Park, N. W. (2010), "Application of Indicator Geostatistics for Probabilistic Uncertainty and Risk Analyses of Geochemical Data", Journal of Korean Earth Science Society, Vol.31, No.4, pp.301-312. https://doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2010.31.4.301
  7. Sun, C. G. (2009), "Seismic Zonation on Site Responses in Daejeon by Building Geotechnical Information System Based on Spatial GIS Framework", Journal of Korean Geotechnical Society (KGS), Vol.25, No.1, pp.5-19.
  8. Lee, H. J., Park, S. W., Yoo, S. D., and Kim, H. T. (2004), "An Estimation of Long-ter m Settlements in the Lar ge Reclamation Site and Determination of Additional Sampling Positions Using Geostatistics and GIS", Journal of Korean Geotechnical Society(KGS), Vol.20, No.2, pp.131-141.
  9. You, K. H. (1993), "A Geostatistical Study Using Qualitative Information for Tunnel Rock Binary Classification-I. Theory-", Journal of Korean Geotechnical Society(KGS), Vol.9, No.3, pp.61-65.
  10. You, K. H. (1995), "A Geostatistical Study Using Qualitative Information for Multiple Rock Classification-I. Theory-", Journal of Korean Geotechnical Society(KGS), Vol.11, No.2, pp.71-77.
  11. You, K. H. (1998), "A Geostatistical Study Using Qualitative Information for Multiple Rock Classification-II. Application", Journal of Korean Geotechnical Society(KGS), Vol.14, No.1, pp.29-35.
  12. You, K. H. (2003), "An Estimation Technique of Rock Mass Classes for a Tunnel Deisgn", Journal of Korean Geotechnical Society(KGS), Vol.19, No.5, pp.319-326.
  13. Yoon, G. L., Lee, K. W, Chae, Y. S., and You, K. H. (2005), "Uncertainty Analysis of Soft Ground Using Geostatistical Kriging Method", Journal of Korean Geotechnical Society(KGS), Vol.21, No.3, pp.5-17.
  14. Chun, S. H., Sun, C. G., and Chung, C. K. (2005), "Application of Geostatistical Method for Geo-Layer Information", Journal of Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol.25, No.2C, pp.103-115.
  15. Choi, J. G. (2007), Geostatistics, Sigma Press, Seoul.
  16. Baise, L. G., Higgins, R. B., and Brankman, C. M. (2006), "Liquefaction hazard mapping-Statistical and spatial characterization of susceptible units", Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, Vol.132, No.6, pp.705-715. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1090-0241(2006)132:6(705)
  17. Chiasson, P., Lafleur, J., Soulie, M., and Law, K. T. (1994), "Characterizing spatial variability of a clay by Geostatistics", Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 32, pp.1-10.
  18. Cressie, N. A. C. (1991), Statistsics for Spatial data, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York.
  19. Deutsch, C. V., and Journal, A. G. (1998), GSLIB: Geostatistical Software Library and User's Guide, Oxford University Press, New York, USA.
  20. Goovaerts, P. (1997), Geostatistics for Natural Resources Evaluation, Oxford University Press, New York.
  21. Isaaks, E. H. and Srivastava, R. M. (1989), Applied Geostatistics, Oxford University Press, New York.
  22. Jaksa, M. B., Kaggwa, W. S., and Brooker, P. I. (1993), "Geostatistical modeling of the spatial variation of the shear strength of a stiff, overconsolidated clay", Probabilistic methods in geotechnical engineering, Balkema, Rotterdam, pp.185-194.
  23. Journel, A. G. and Huijbergts, C. J. (1978), Mining Geostatistics: Academic Press, London.
  24. Journel, A. G. (1983), "Non-parametric estimation of spatial distributions", Mathematical Geology, 15, pp.445-468. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01031292
  25. Journel, A. G. (1984), "Mad and conditional quantile estimator", In G. Verly, M. David, A.G. Journel, and A. Marechal, editors, Geostatistics for Natural Resources Characterization, Vol.2, pp.261-270.
  26. Lee, H. J., Park, S. W., Yoo, S. D., and Kim, H. T. (2004), "An Estimation of Long-term Settlements in the Large Reclamation Site and Determination of Additional Sampling Positions Using Geostatistics and GIS", Jour. of the KGS, Vol.20, No.2, pp.131-141.
  27. Parsons, R. L., and Frost, J. D. (2002), "Evaluating site investigation quality using GIS and Geostatistics", Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, Vol.128, No.6, pp.451-461. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1090-0241(2002)128:6(451)
  28. Sitharam, T. G. (2007), "Spatial variability of SPT data using ordinary and disjunctive kriging", ISGSR2007 First International Symposium on Geotechnical Safety & Risk, pp.253-264.
  29. Soulie, M., Montes, P., and Silvestri, V. (1990), "Modelling spatial variability of soil parameters", Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 27(5), pp.617-630. https://doi.org/10.1139/t90-076
  30. Srivastava, R. M. (1987), "Minimum variance and maximum profitable?", CIM Bulletin, 80(901), pp.63-68.
  31. Sun, C, G., Chun, S. H., and Chung, C. K. (2008), "Spatial GIS-Based seismic zonations for regional estimation of site effects at Seoul metropolitan area", Proceedings of Second Japan-Korea Geotechnical Engineering Workshop, Tokyo, Japan, pp.115-122.
  32. You, K. H. (1995), "A solution for order relation problems in multiple indicator kriging", Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society, KGS, Vol.11, No.3, pp.17-26.