Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Establishment and Application of Neuro-Fuzzy Real-Time Flood Forecasting Model by Linking Takagi-Sugeno Inference with Neural Network (I) : Selection of Optimal Input Data Combinations

Takagi-Sugeno 추론기법과 신경망을 연계한 뉴로-퍼지 홍수예측 모형의 구축 및 적용 (I) : 최적 입력자료 조합의 선정

  • Received : 2011.05.17
  • Accepted : 2011.06.13
  • Published : 2011.07.31
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Abstract

The objective of this study is to develop the data driven model for the flood forecasting that are improved the problems of the existing hydrological model for flood forecasting in medium and small streams. Neuro-Fuzzy flood forecasting model which linked the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy inference theory with neural network, that can forecast flood only by using the rainfall and flood level and discharge data without using lots of physical data that are necessary in existing hydrological rainfall-runoff model is established. The accuracy of flood forecasting using this model is determined by temporal distribution and number of used rainfall and water level as input data. So first of all, the various combinations of input data were constructed by using rainfall and water level to select optimal input data combination for applying Neuro-Fuzzy flood forecasting model. The forecasting results of each combination are compared and optimal input data combination for real-time flood forecasting is determined.

본 연구의 목적은 중소하천에서의 홍수예측을 위해 사용되는 기존의 수문학적 모형이 가지고 있는 문제점을 개선한 홍수예측 모형을 개발하는데 있다. 이를 위해 기존의 수문학적 강우-유출 모형에서 사용되는 많은 수문학적 자료 및 매개변수들의 사용 없이 오직 수위 및 강우측정 자료만을 이용하여 홍수를 예측할 수 있는 Takagi-Sugeno 퍼지 추론기법과 신경망을 연계한뉴로-퍼지홍수예측 모형을 구축하고자 하였다. 뉴로-퍼지 홍수예측 모형의 예측정확도는 입력자료로 사용되는 강우와 수위 자료의 시간적 분포 및 자료의 수에 의해 결정된다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 홍수예측 모형 구축을 위한 최적 입력 자료 조합 선정을 위해 다양한 강우와 수위의 입력자료 조합을 구성하여 적용하였고, 이를 통해 홍수 예측을 위한 뉴러-퍼지 홍수예측 모형의 최적 입력 자료 조합을 선정하였다.

Keywords

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