Abstract
The purpose of this study is to analyze 3rd, 4th and 5th graders' probability understanding and raise issues concerning instructional methods and search for the possibility of learning probability. For the purpose, a descriptive study through pencil-and-paper test regarding fairness, sample space, probability of event, probability comparison, independence and conditional probability was conducted. The following conclusions were drawn from the results obtained in this study. First, the 3rd, 4th, and 5th grade students scored the highest in the sample space questions. In descending order of skill, the students scored the highest in sample space following probability of events, fairness and probability comparison. Second, however, the level of independence understanding was low. There was no meaningful differences between grades and the conditional probability was the least understood. The independence is difficult to develop naturally according to cognitive development. The conditional probability recognizing the probability of an event changes in non-replacement situations was very difficult for these students. Third, there were significant differences between the 5th graders and the 3rd and 4th graders in the probability comparison questions. It shows that 5th graders understand the concept of proportion when they compare equal ratio probability of an event. The 3rd graers could do different ratio probability of an event more easily than equal ratio probability of an event after they were instructed on probability comparison.
본 연구의 목적은 확률을 학습하지 않은 3, 4, 5학년 학생들의 확률 개념에 대한 이해 수준을 살펴보고, 확률 학습에 대한 가능성을 탐색하는 것이다. 이를 위해 3, 4, 5학년 학생을 대상으로 지필검사를 통한 조사 연구를 실시하였고, 선행연구를 토대로 한 확률 이해 분석의 틀을 분석기준으로 삼았다. 본 연구의 결과 학생들의 확률 개념 평균 이해 수준은 표본공간에서 가장 높게 나타났고 사건의 확률, 공평성, 확률 비교 순이었으며, 특히 표본공간에 대해 가장 높은 수준을 나타냈고 이러한 결과는 3, 4, 5학년의 공통적인 현상이었다. 반면 학생들의 독립성에 대한 이해 수준은 낮은 편이었고 학년 간에 유의한 수준 차이가 없었으며, 조건부 확률에 대한 이해는 가장 낮았다.