The Effects of Non-synchronized Investment Behavior under Industrial Business Cycles

산업경기순환 하에서 투자행동 비동기화의 효과

This article aims to clarify what is the best investment behavior in Capital Intensive Industries(hereinafter CIIs) which show repeated business cycles. In CIIs, investments is centered in the period of upturns and goes beyond the adequate level because of the time that takes to completion of facilities. This over-investment causes oversupply and downturn, and in period of downturn, investments shrinks under the adequate level. The repeated change of over-investment and under-investment is the reason for the business cycles. In this article, a simulation model replicating the business cycles in CIIs was constructed and the effects of various investment strategies was tested. The results are as follows. First, the investment behavior following market condition causes the ongoing fluctuation of profits. Second, strategic increase in flexibility such as adjustment of facility utilization and shortening of facility construction time contributes to the increase in profit and stabilization of income. Third, in relation to market condition, the constant investment is more profitable in stagnated market and the counter-market investment is more profitable in growing market. In sum, it is desirable not to synchronize their investment with those of competitors.