Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning (농촌계획)

Korean Society of Rural Planning (한국농촌계획학회)
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Estimating Monthly Tourist Population for Analysis of Green Tourism Potential in Village Level - A Case Study of Hahoe Village -

그린투어리즘 포텐셜 분석을 위한 관광마을 수준의 월별 방문객 추정 - 하회마을을 중심으로 -

  • Gao, Yujie (Department of Agricultural Engineering, Graduate School, Chungnam Nat'l Univ.) ;
  • Kim, Dae-Sik (Department of Agricultural Engineering, Chungnam Nat'l Univ.) ;
  • Kim, Yong-Hoon (Department of Agricultural Engineering, Graduate School, Chungnam Nat'l Univ.)
  • 고옥결 (충남대학교 대학원) ;
  • 김대식 (충남대학교 농업생명과학대학 지역환경토목학과) ;
  • 김용훈 (충남대학교 대학원)
  • Received : 2010.08.09
  • Accepted : 2011.02.08
  • Published : 2011.03.20
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Abstract

본 연구에서는 ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) 모델을 이용하여 농촌관광마을의 월별 관광객을 추정하였다. 단일 마을에 대한 시계열 자료를 경상북도 안동시에 위치한 하회마을을 대상으로 구축하였다. 월별 시계열 자료는 2000년부터 2010년까지 구성되었는데(2008년도 누락), 2000년에서 2007년까지 자료는 최적 모델의 도출에 나머지는 예측치의 검정에 사용되었다. 연구 결과 최적모델에 필요한 시계열 자료의 길이는 6년으로 나타났으며, 최적모델은 계절성을 고려한 SARIMA(2,1,1)(1,1,2)12로 나타났다. 최적 시계열 년수로 나타난 6년을 사용하여 2000-2005, 2001-2006, 그리고 2002-2007의 자료로부터 각각 SARIMA(2,1,1)(1,1,2)12를 도출하여, 차기년도들에 대한 예측결과를 비교한 결과, 높은 $R^2$값을 보였다.

Keywords

References

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