한국임상수의학회지 (Journal of Veterinary Clinics)

  • 제27권4호
  • /
  • Pages.421-426
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  • 2010
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  • 1598-298X(pISSN)
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  • 2384-0749(eISSN)
한국임상수의학회 (The Korean Society of Veterinary Clinics)
권호 표지

수입 소의 검역검사 수준에 따른 블루텅 검출 확률 비교

Comparison of Probability of Detecting Bluetongue in Quarantine Testing for the Imported Cattle with Special Focus on the Sampling Scenario

  • 박선일 (강원대학교 수의과대학 및 동물의학종합연구소)
  • Pak, Son-Il (College of Veterinary Medicine and Institute of Veterinary Science, Kangwon National University)
  • 심사 : 2010.08.03
  • 발행 : 2010.08.30
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초록

In view of free from bluetongue (BT) in the domestic cattle population in Korea, the key of quarantine testing for BT virus (BTV) infection is detection of cattle previously exposed to the virus. The objective of this study was to estimate the probability of detecting a cattle infected with BTV using a stochastic modeling analysis of existing quarantine testing data. Three testing scenarios were considered in this study: serological testing of all animals in all imported lots (scenario 1), serological testing of a sample of cattle from all imported lots (scenario 2), and serological testing of 50% of imported lots (scenario 3). In scenario 2 and 3, it was assumed that cattle were sampled (sample size) within each lot to detect 5% of the cattle in each lot with a 95% confidence, taking into account diagnostic sensitivity of the ELISA (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay). The model output was the total number of BTV-infected cattle and the prevalence of BTV infection in imported cattle from the US, Australia, Canada and Japan. Compared to the scenario 1, the probability of detecting a BTV-infected cattle was estimated to be 19% and 1.6% in scenario 2 and 3, respectively. Furthermore, the analyses showed a 95% confidence that BTV prevalence was less or equal to $9.7{\times}10^{-4}$ (median = $1.5{\times}10^{-5}$), indicating that, for the scenario 2 and 3 with serological testing for a sample of cattle, the risk of introducing an exotic strain of BTV into Korea through the importation of live cattle would not be acceptable.

키워드

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