Fire Science and Engineering (한국화재소방학회논문지)

Korean Institute of Fire Science and Engineering (한국화재소방학회)
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Development of Prediction Model of Fuel Moisture Changes After Precipitation in the Spring for the Pine Forest Located the Yeongdong Region (Focused on the Down Wood Material Diameter)

영동지역 봄철 소나무림에서 강우후 연료습도변화 예측모델 개발 (지표연료 직경두께를 중심으로)

  • Received : 2010.03.03
  • Accepted : 2010.08.16
  • Published : 2010.08.31
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Abstract

The change of fuel moisture according to the passed days after a raindrop is very important to forecast risk of forest fire and to make a good use of forest fire watchmen. For that reason, in the Spring of 2007, we researched pine forest that were widespread growing in Yeongdong region to find out the condition of forest fire risk. We developed the forecast model of fuel moisture change on dead tree branches which were dropped on the ground and less than 0.6 cm, 0.6~3.0 cm, 3.0~6.0 cm, and more than 6.0 cm in diameter after more than 5.0 mm in precipitation. The result showed that the less diameter of ground fuel and small stand of pines the faster diminishing of fuel moisture, and the days of reaching to a forest fire danger fuel moisture level were represented by two (2) days for less than 0.6 cm diameter of small stand of pine and three (3) days for 0.6~3.0 cm diameter one, respectively. By those results, we developed the forecast model($R^2=0.76{\sim}0.92$) of fuel moisture change on different diameter of small stand of pine, and found that the model had statistical significant of 1% level after we applied it to the data of 2008 after the same period of raindrop by actual meteorological measurement.

강우 후 경과일수에 따른 연료습도 변화는 산불위험도 예측과 산불감시원 활용에 매우 중요하다. 따라서 이러한 산불위험 조건을 구명하기 위해 2007년 봄철 영동지방 소나무림에서 임분 밀도별로 5mm 이상 강우 후 지표에 떨어져 있는 고사한 나뭇가지의 직경이 0.6cm 이하, 0.6~3.0cm, 3.0~6.0cm, 6.0cm 이상에 대한 연료습도변화 예측모델을 개발하였다. 연구결과 지표연료의 직경이 작고, 소임분일수록 연료습도의 감소가 빠르게 진행되었으며 산불위험 연료습도에 도달하는 날짜도 소임분 직경 0.6cm 이하의 경우 2일차, 직경 0.6~3.0cm의 경우 3일차로 나타났다. 이러한 결과를 토대로 각 직경별 연료습도변화 예측모델($R^2=0.76{\sim}0.92$)을 개발하였으며, 2008년 동일기간의 강우 후 기상 실측자료를 적용하여 예측모델을 검증한 결과 1% 수준에서 유의성이 있음을 알 수 있었다.

Keywords

References

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