Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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A Study on the Analysis of the Relationship between Sea Surface Temperature and Monthly Rainfall

해수면온도와 우리나라 월강우량과의 관계분석에 관한 연구

  • 오태석 (서울시립대학교 공과대학 토목공학과) ;
  • 문영일 (서울시립대학교 공과대학 토목공학과)
  • Received : 2009.11.25
  • Accepted : 2010.04.20
  • Published : 2010.05.31
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Abstract

Rainfall events in the hydrologic circulation are closely related with various meteorological factors. Therefore, in this research, correlation relationship was analyzed between sea surface temperature of typical meteorological factor and monthly rainfall on Korean peninsula. The cluster analysis was performed monthly average rainfall data, longitude and latitude observed by rainfall observatory in Korea. Results from cluster analysis using monthly rainfall data in South Korea were divided into 4 regions. The principal components of monthly rainfall data were extracted from rainfall stations separated cluster regions. A correlation analysis was performed with extracted principal components and sea surface temperatures. At the results of correlation analysis, positive correlation coefficients were larger than negative correlation coefficients. In addition, The 3 month of principal components on monthly rainfall predicted by locally weighted polynomial regression using observed data of sea surface temperature where biggest correlation coefficients have. The result of forecasting through the locally weighted polynomial regression was revealed differences in accuracy. But, this methods in the research can be analyzed for forecasting about monthly rainfall data. Therefore, continuous research need through hydrological meteorological factors like a sea surface temperature about forecasting of the rainfall events.

수문학적 물순환과정에서 강우는 여러 기상학적 인자들과 밀접한 관련을 갖으며 발생한다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 대표적인 수문기상인자인 해수면온도와 한반도에 발생하는 월강우량 사이의 관계에 대하여 분석하였다. 우리나라의 61개 지점의 월평균 강우량과 위도 및 경도 자료를 이용하여 군집분석을 수행하였다. 군집 분석 결과에서 우리나라의 월강우자료를 이용하여 크게 4개의 군집으로 구분할 수 있었다. 군집별로 구분된 강우관측소의 월강우량 자료들을 주성분을 추출하였다. 추출된 주성분과 해수면온도와의 상관성 분석을 수행하였다. 상관성 분석 결과에서 양(+)의 상관관계가 음(-)의 상관관계보다 더 크게 나타났다. 또한, 상관관계가 가장 큰 지점의 해수면온도를 이용하여 3개월의 월강우량을 지역가중다항식을 통해 예측하였다. 지역가중다항식을 통한 예측 결과는 군집에 따라 정확성에 차이는 있으나, 정량적인 예측이 가능한 것으로 판단되었다. 따라서 해수면온도와 같은 수문기상인자를 통한 강우량의 예측에 대한 지속적인 연구가 필요하다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 서울시립대학교

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