Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering (산업경영시스템학회지)

Society of Korea Industrial and System Engineering (한국산업경영시스템학회)
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Development of Survivor Models Using Technological Growth Models

기술성장곡선을 활용한 생존모형 개발

  • Oh, Hyun-Seung (Department of Industrial and Management Engineering, Hannam University) ;
  • Cho, Jin-Hyung (Division of Industrial Engineering, Kumoh Institute of Technology)
  • 오현승 (한남대학교 공과대학 산업경영공학과) ;
  • 조진형 (금오공과대학교 산업공학부)
  • Received : 2010.11.16
  • Accepted : 2010.12.01
  • Published : 2010.12.31
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Abstract

Recent competitive and technological changes during the past decade have accelerated the need for better capital recovery methods. Competition and technology have together shortened the expected lives of property which could not have been forecasted several years ago. Since the usage of technological growth models has been prevalent in various technological forecasting environments, the various forms of growth models have become numerous. Of six such models studied, some models do significantly better than others, especially at low penetration levels in predicting future levels of growth. A set of criteria for choosing an appropriate model for technological growth models was developed. Two major characteristics of an S-shaped curve were elected which differentiate the various models; they are the skewness of the curve and underlying assumptions regarding the variance of error structure of the model.

Keywords

References

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