Patterns of Strong Heat Waves within the Seoul Metropolitan Area and Its Impacts on Elderly Mortality Based on the Last 100 Year Observations

지난 100년 동안 서울시에 발생한 강한 열파 패턴과 노인사망자에 미치는 영향

  • Choi, Gwang-Yong (Department of Environmental Science, Kangwon National University)
  • 최광용 (강원대학교 환경과학과)
  • Received : 2010.10.06
  • Accepted : 2010.10.23
  • Published : 2010.10.31

Abstract

In this study, trends of heat waves in the populous Seoul metropolitan area over the last 100 years (1908-2007) and spatio-temporal patterns of extreme heat waves and excessive human mortality are examined. In spite of recent global warming, there is no observable increasing or decreasing pattern in the frequency and intensity of heat waves in Seoul due to increases of summer precipitation. Among numerous episodes over the last 100 years in Seoul, 1994 summer is recognized as the unprecedented, most extreme hot episode with long-lasting, intense heat waves Meteorological data observed at the Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) and land surface temperature data derived from Landsat TM satellite imagery in July 1994 reveal that extreme heat waves cause more abnormal increase of elderly mortality in the urbanized areas than in the surroundings covered with more vegetation. This study provides bioclimatological evidences of why urban thermal environments should be seriously considered in the future urban revitalization planning.

이 연구에서는 지난 100년(1908~2007) 동안 서울에서 발생한 열파의 변화추세와 극심한 열파 발생 시 도심내 열환경과 사망자의 시공간적 패턴을 분석하고자 한다. 최근의 온난화 경향에도 불구하고 여름철 강수량증가에 의해 서울시의 열파 발생빈도 및 강도에는 뚜렷한 변화경향이 관찰되지 않는다. 전례 없이 강한 열파가 발생한 1994년 7월의 자동기상관측 및 Landsat TM 위성 영상 추출 열분포 자료들은 도심내 형성되는 고온의 열환경에 의해 노인 질병 사망자 수가 더욱 증가하였음을 잘 보여준다. 이 연구는 차후 도심 정비시 열환경 분포를 고려해야 하는 생리기후학적 근거를 제시하고 있다.

Keywords

References

  1. Boo, K. O., Chun, Y. S., Park, J. Y., Cho, H. M., and Kwon, W. T., 1999, The horizontal distribution of air temperature in Seoul using automatic weather station data, Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society, 35, 335-343 (in Korean).
  2. Chander, G. and Markham, B. L., 2003, Revised Landsate-5 TM radiometric calibration procedures and postcalibration dynamic ranges, IEEE Transactions on Geosciences and Remote Sensing, 41, 2674-2677. https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2003.818464
  3. Chander, G., Markham, B. L., and Helder, D. L., 2009, Summary of current radiometric calibration coefficients for Landsat MSS, TM, ETM+, and EO-1 ALI sensors, Remote Sensing of Environments, 113, 893-903. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2009.01.007
  4. Changnon, S. A., Kunkel, K. E., and Reinke, B. C., 1996, Impacts and responses to the 1995 heat wave: A call to action, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 77, 1497-1506. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<1497:IARTTH>2.0.CO;2
  5. Choi, G., 2006, A definition of Korean heat waves and their spatio-temporal patterns, Journal of the Korean Geographical Society, 41, 527-544.
  6. Choi, G., Choi, J., and Kwon, H. J., 2005, The impact of high apparent temperature on the increase of summertime disease-related mortality in Seoul, 1991-2000, Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, 38, 283-290 (in Korean).
  7. Choi, G., Choi, J., Kim, J. W., and Son, S. W., 2002, The climatology of perceived sultriness in South Korea, Journal of the Korean Geographical Society, 37, 385-402 (in Korean).
  8. Choi, G., Kwon, W. T., Boo, K. O., and Cha, Y. M., 2008, Recent spatial and temporal changes in means and extreme events of temperature and precipitation across the Republic of Korea, Journal of the Korean Geographical Society, 43, 681-700.
  9. Houghton, F. C. and Yagloglou, C. P., 1923, Determining equal comfort lines, Journal of the American Society Heating and Ventilation Engineers, 29, 165-176.
  10. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2007, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., Qin, D. Manning, M. Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L.(eds.)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
  11. Kim, J., Lee, D. G., Choi, B. C., and Park, I. S., 2007, Synoptic air mass classification using cluster analysis and relation to daily mortality in Seoul, South Korea, Atmosphere, 17, 45-53 (in Korean).
  12. Kim, J., Lee, D. G., and Kysely, J., 2008, A synoptic and climatological comparison of record-breaking heat waves in Korea and Europe, Atmosphere, 18, 355-365 (in Korean).
  13. Kim, J., Lee, D. G., Park, I. S., Choi, B. C., and Kim, J. S., 2006, Influences of heat waves on daily mortality in South Korea, Atmosphere, 16, 269- 278 (in Korean).
  14. Kim, J., Lee, D. G., and Kysely, J., 2009, Characteristics of heat acclimatization for major Korean cities, Atmosphere, 19, 309-318 (in Korean).
  15. Kim, J. and Lee, S., 2007, The distribution of heat waves and its cause in South Korea, Journal of the Korean Geographical Society, 42, 332-343 (in Korean).
  16. Kim, Y. H. and Baik, J. J., 2002, Maximum urban heat island intensity in Seoul, Journal of Applied Meteorology, 41, 651-659. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2002)041<0651:MUHIII>2.0.CO;2
  17. Kwon, Y. A., 2006, Analysis of urban thermal environment properties using Landsat ETM+ in Seoul, Journal of the Korean Urban Geography Society, 9, 147-157 (in Korean).
  18. Kysely, J., Huth, R., and Kim, J., 2010, Evaluating heatrelated mortality in Korea by objective classification of air masses, International Journal of Climatology, 30, 1484-1501.
  19. Kysely, J. and Kim, J., 2009, Mortality during heat waves in South Korea, 1991-2005: How exceptional was the 1994 heat wave?, Climate Research, 38, 105-116. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00775
  20. Lee, D. G., Kim, J., and Choi, B. C., 2007, Characteristics of daily mortality due to heat waves in Busan in July 1994, Atmosphere, 17, 463-470 (in Korean).
  21. Lee, H. Y., 1993, An application of NOAA AVHRR thermal data to the study of urban heat islands, Atmospheric Environment, 27B, 1-13.
  22. Park, H. S., 1986, Features of the heat island in Seoul and its surrounding cities, Atmospheric Environment, 20, 1859-1866. https://doi.org/10.1016/0004-6981(86)90326-4
  23. Park, J. K., Jung, W. S., and Kim, E. B., 2008a, A study on development of the extreme heat standard in Korea, Journal of the Environmental Sciences, 17, 657-669 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.5322/JES.2008.17.6.657
  24. Park, J. K., Jung, W. S., and Kim, E. B., 2008b, A study on the influence of extreme heat on daily mortality, Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment, 24, 523-537 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.5572/KOSAE.2008.24.5.523
  25. Park, J. K., Jung, W. S., and Kim, E. B., 2009, Study on the establishment of threshold criteria for heat health watch warning system in Korea; Part I: Establishment of criteria and verification, Journal of the Environmental Sciences, 18, 767- 780 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.5322/JES.2009.18.7.767
  26. Rothfusz, L. P., 1990, The Heat Index equation (or, more than you ever wanted to know about Heat Index), Forth Worth, Texas: NOAA, NWS, OM, Publication no SR 90-23.
  27. Rouse, J. W., Haas, R. H., Schell, J. A., and Deering, D. W., 1974, Monitoring vegetation systems in the Great Plains with ERTS, Proceedings of the 3rd ERTS Symposium, 1, 48-62.
  28. Sheridan, S. C. and Kalkstein, L. S., 2004, Progress in heat wave-warning system technology, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 85, 1931- 1941. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-85-12-1931
  29. Smoyer, K. E., 1998, A comparative analysis of heat waves and associated mortality in St. Louis, Missuri-1980 and 1995, International Journal of Biometeorology, 42, 44-50. https://doi.org/10.1007/s004840050082
  30. Stott, P., Stone, D., and Allen, M., 2004, Human contribution to the European heat wave of 2003, Nature, 432, 610-614. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03089
  31. Thom, E. C., 1959, The discomfort index, Weatherwise, 12, 57-60. https://doi.org/10.1080/00431672.1959.9926960
  32. Tromp, S. W., 1980, Biometeorology: The Impact of The Weather and Climate on Humans and Their Environment (Animals and Plants), Heyden, London.
  33. UNEP (United Nations Environmental Programme), 2004, Impacts of summer 2003 heat wave in Europe, Environment Alert Bulletin, 2, 1-3.
  34. http://www.kma.go.kr
  35. http://kostat.go.kr/
  36. Kyongbukilbo, August 6, 2010 (available at http://www. kyongbuk.co.kr/).