한국물환경학회지 (Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment)

  • 제26권3호
  • /
  • Pages.482-490
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  • 2010
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  • 2289-0971(pISSN)
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  • 2289-098X(eISSN)
한국물환경학회 (Korean Society on Water Environment)
권호 표지

우리나라 기후 재현성을 중심으로 한 GCMs 평가

GCMs Evaluation Focused on Korean Climate Reproducibility

  • 최대규 (부경대학교 환경공학과) ;
  • 이진희 (한국환경정책.평가연구원 물순환연구실) ;
  • 조덕준 (동서대학교 건축토목공학부) ;
  • 김상단 (부경대학교 환경공학과)
  • Choi, Daegyu (Department of Environmental Engineering, Pukyong National University) ;
  • Lee, Jinhee (Division of Water and Environment, Korea Environment Institute) ;
  • Jo, Deok Jun (Division of Architecture & Civil Engineering, Dongseo University) ;
  • Kim, Sangdan (Department of Environmental Engineering, Pukyong National University)
  • 투고 : 2009.12.07
  • 심사 : 2010.03.14
  • 발행 : 2010.05.30
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초록

In this study 17 GCMs' simulations of late 20th century climate in Korea are examined. A regionally averaged time series formed by averaging the temperature and precipitation values at all the Korean grid points. In order to compare general circulation models with observations, observed spatially averaged temperature and precipitation is calculated using 24 stations for 1971 to 2000. The annual mean difference between models and observed data are compared. For temperature, most models have a slight cold bias. The models with least bias in annual average temperature are NIES(MIROC3.2 hires), GISS(AOM) and INGV(SXG2005). For precipitation, almost all models have a dry bias, and for some the bias exceeds 50%. Models with lowest bias are NIES(MIROC3.2 hires), CCCma(CGCM3-T47) and MPI-M(ECHAM5-OM). The models' simulated seasonal cycles show that for temperature, CSIRO(Mk3.0) has the best followed by CCCma(CGCM3-T47) and CCCma(CGCM3-T63), and for precipitation, NIES(MIROC3.2 hires) has the best followed by CSIRO(Mk3.0) and CNRM(CM3). In the assessment using Taylor diagram, CCCma(CGCM3-T47) ranks the best for temperature, and NIES(MIROC3.2 hires) ranks the best for precipitation.

키워드

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