교통법규 위반자에 대한 사면과 교통사고 발생 간의 인과순환적 관계에 대한 연구

A study on the Causal Feedback Relationship between Special Pardon for Traffic Law Violators and Traffic Accidents

More than 24.43 million people received a special pardon to mark the anniversary of Liberation Day on Aug. 15 and to commemorate other national event, during 15years(1995-2009), in this period six times of presidential pardon was implemented. The special pardon allows traffic law violator to drive again with their violation records wiped clean. But traffic records show that traffic accidents used to increase very fast in a short period by up to 3-15 percent after implementing the every massive pardons. This study explores the causal feedback relationship between presidential special pardon for traffic law violators and the occurrence of an traffic accidents using a system thinking approach and simulation modelling. Particularly, this study focused on the analysing significant negative impact of the traffic pardon on the occurrence of worrisome traffic accidents. The results of this study show that presidential special pardon have had impact on the traffic accidents as a increasing leverage of positive feedback loop and the obedience of traffic law as a decreasing leverage of negative feedback loop. Finally, this study conclude that the cyclical increasing pattern of traffic accident is resulting from the periodically conducted presidential pardons with political aims.