한국수자원학회논문집 (Journal of Korea Water Resources Association)

  • 제42권6호
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  • Pages.465-480
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  • 2009
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  • 2799-8746(pISSN)
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  • 2799-8754(eISSN)
한국수자원학회 (Korea Water Resources Association)
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지역빈도해석 및 다중회귀분석을 이용한 산악형 강수해석

Orographic Precipitation Analysis with Regional Frequency Analysis and Multiple Linear Regression

  • 윤혜선 (연세대학교 대학원 토목공학과, (주)삼안 수자원부) ;
  • 엄명진 (연세대학교 대학원 토목공학과) ;
  • 조원철 (연세대학교 공과대학 사회환경시스템공학부) ;
  • 허준행 (연세대학교 공과대학 사회환경시스템공학부)
  • 발행 : 2009.06.30
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초록

본 연구에서는 다중회귀분석을 이용하여 산악효과를 야기하는 지형인자와 강수와의 관계를 파악하였다. 섬 전체가 산악지형인 제주도의 연평균강수량과 지수홍수법으로 산출한 확률강우량을 강수자료로 사용하여 산악효과를 야기하는 지형인자로 선정한 고도, 위 경도와 회귀모형을 구성하였다. 회귀분석 결과 연평균강수량과 고도와의 선형관계가 확률강우량에서도 동일하게 나타났으며, 고도이외에 위도, 경도를 각각 추가인자로 고려할 경우 강우량과 더욱 강한 상관성을 보였다. 또한, 고도와 위도, 경도를 모두 고려한 회귀모형을 이용한 지형공간분석 결과 제주도의 실제 강수특성과 마찬가지로 남동부로 편중된 강수형태를 보여 모형의 적합성을 증명하였다. 그러나 지속시간 및 재현기간과 무관하게 높은 고도에서 회귀식의 유효성이 감소하므로, 높은 고도에서의 추가적인 산악효과인자의 강수량에 대한 영향이 존재될 것으로 판단되므로 추후 연구가 필요하다.

In this study, single and multiple linear regression model were used to derive the relationship between precipitation and altitude, latitude and longitude in Jejudo. The single linear regression analysis was focused on whether orographic effect was existed in Jejudo by annual average precipitation, and the multiple linear regression analysis on whether orographic effect was applied to each duration and return period of quantile from regional frequency analysis by index flood method. As results of the regression analysis, it shows the relationship between altitude and precipitation strongly form a linear relationship as the length of duration and return period increase. The multiple linear regression precipitation estimates(which used altitude, latitude, and longitude information) were found to be more reasonable than estimates obtained using altitude only or altitude-latitude and altitude-longitude. Especially, as results of spatial distribution analysis by kriging method using GIS, it also provides realistic estimates for precipitation that the precipitation was occurred the southeast region as real climate of Jejudo. However, the accuracy of regression model was decrease which derived a short duration of precipitation or estimated high region precipitation even had long duration. Consequently the other factor caused orographic effect would be needed to estimate precipitation to improve accuracy.

키워드

참고문헌

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