Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering (산업경영시스템학회지)

Society of Korea Industrial and System Engineering (한국산업경영시스템학회)
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Selection of Survival Models for Technological Development

기술발전에 따른 생존모형 선정

  • Oh, H.S. (Department of Industrial and Management Engineering, Hannam University) ;
  • Kim, C.S. (Department of Industrial and Management Engineering, Hannam University) ;
  • Rhee, H.K. (Department of Industrial and Management Engineering, Hannam University) ;
  • Yim, D.S. (Department of Industrial and Management Engineering, Hannam University) ;
  • Cho, J.H. (Department of Industrial Engineering, Kumoh Institute of Technology)
  • 오현승 (한남대학교 공과대학 산업경영공학과) ;
  • 김종수 (한남대학교 공과대학 산업경영공학과) ;
  • 이한교 (한남대학교 공과대학 산업경영공학과) ;
  • 임동순 (한남대학교 공과대학 산업경영공학과) ;
  • 조진형 (금오공과대학교 산업시스템공학과)
  • Published : 2009.12.31
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Abstract

In a technological driven environment, a depreciation estimate which is based on traditional life analysis results in a decelerated rate of capital recovery. This time pattern of technological growths models needs to be incorporated into life analysis framework especially in those industries experiencing fast technological changes. The approximation technique for calculating the variance can be applied to the six growth models that were selected by the degree of skewness and the transformation of the functions. For the Pearl growth model, the Gompertz growth model, and the Weibull growth model, the errors have zero mean and a constant variance over time. However, transformed models like the linearized Fisher-Pry model, the linearized Gompertz growth model, and the linearized Weibull growth model have increasing variance from zero to that point at which inflection occurs. It can be recommended that if the variance of error over time is increasing, then a transformation of observed data is appropriate.

Keywords

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