A Leverage Strategy of the Defense Program Analysis Based on Systems Thinking

시스템 사고를 이용한 국방 사업분석 레버리지 전략

The ever-increasing government budget constraints have led to a continued decline in the increase rate for defense spending, and the government's 5-year National Fiscal Management Plan has served to reinforce the verification and validation procedures for the Force Improvement Programs (FIP) budget requirements and performance. Additionally, as large programs are controlled in accordance with the Total Program Cost Management Guidelines, timely and credible feasibility study and performance measurement need to be conducted. Due to these internal and external circumstances, needs have surged for feasibility and economic effectiveness study for big ticket projects in the FIP sector, with an increasing number of studies conducted by external research institutes. However, questions have been raised regarding the credibility and thoroughness of the program analyses performed by these research institutes due to various restrictions. This paper analyzes and identifies the structural limitations and problems using a systems thinking approach, and examines the systemic characteristics of the program analysis system. It also presents policy intervention recommendations based on the theory of systems thinking, a method to regularize and reinforce the program analysis system. Policy interventions recommended to ensure alignment of the external studies to the clear analysis objectives and resolve the bottlenecks in the external analysis include training those in charge of external study commissioning for a short term intervention, and increasing the number of research institutes and consulting agencies utilizing analysis and evaluation experts who transition to the private sector from the military for a long term intervention. additionally presented are strategies and policy alternatives to best utilize these policy interventions. They will contribute to the stable funding of Force Improvement Programs and efficient utilization of defense budget.