Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater (상하수도학회지)

The Korean Society of Water and Wastewater (대한상하수도학회)
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Modeling Procedure to Adapt to Change of Trend of Water Demand: Application of Bayesian Parameter Estimation

물수요의 추세 변화의 적응을 위한 모델링 절차 제시:베이지안 매개변수 산정법 적용

  • Received : 2009.01.05
  • Accepted : 2009.04.08
  • Published : 2009.04.15
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Abstract

It is well known that the trend of water demand in large-size water supply systems has been suddenly changed, and many expansions of water supply facilities become unnecessary. To be cost-effective, thus, politicians as well as many professionals lay stress on the adaptive management of water supply facilities. Failure in adapting to the new trend of demand is sure to be the most critical reason of unnecessary expansions. Hence, we try to develop the model and modeling procedure that do not depend on the old data of demand, and provide engineers with the fast learning process. To forecast water demand of Seoul, the Bayesian parameter estimation was applied, which is a representative method for statistical pattern recognition. It results that we can get a useful time-series model after observing water demand during 6 years, although trend of water demand were suddenly changed.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 한국건설교통기술평가원

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