Economic Analysis of Snow Damage on Sugi (Cryptomeria japonica) Forest Stands in Japan Within the Forest Stand Optimization Framework

We conduct economic analysis of the snow damage on sugi (Cryptomeria japonica) forest stands in Toyama Prefecture, Japan. We utilize a single tree and distant independent growth simulator called "Silv-Forest." With this growth simulator, we developed an optimization model by dynamic programming, called DP-Silv (Dynamic Programming Silv-Forest). The MS-PATH (multiple stage projection alternative technique) algorithm was embedded as a searching algorithm of dynamic programming. The height / DBH ratio was used to constrain the thinning regime for snow damage protection. The optimal rotation age turned out to be 65 years for the non-restricted case, while it was 50 years for the restricted case. The difference in NPV of these two cases as the induced costs ranged from 179,867 to 1,910,713yen/ha over the rotation age of 20 to 75 years. Under the optimal rotation of 65 years, the cost became 914,226 yen/ha. The estimated annual payment based on the difference in NPV, was from 9,869 yen/ha/yr to 85,900 yen/ha/yr. All in all, 10,000 yen/ha/yr to 20,000 yen/ha/yr seems to cover the payment from the rotation age of 35 to 75 years.