Abstract
Today, as the power trades between generation companies and power customer are liberalized, the uncertainty level of operated power system is rapidly increased. Therefore, transmission operators as decision makers for transmission expansion are required to establish a deliberate investment plan for effective operations of transmission facilities considering forecasted conditions of power system. This paper proposes the methodology for the optimal solution of transmission expansion in deregulated power system. The paper obtains the expected value of transmission congestion cost for various scenarios by using occurrence probability. In addition, the paper assumes that increasing rates of loads are the probability distribution and indicates the location of expanded transmission line, the time for transmission expansion with the minimum cost for the future by performing the Montecarlo simulation. To minimize the investment risk as the variance of the congestion cost, Mean-Variance Markowitz portfolio theory is applied to the optimization model by the penalty factor of the variance. By the case study, the optimal solution for transmission expansion plan considering the feature of market participants is obtained.
