Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods

The Korean Statistical Society (한국통계학회)
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History of the Error and the Normal Distribution in the Mid Nineteenth Century

19세기 중반 오차와 정규분포의 역사

  • Jo, Jae-Keun (Department of Informational Statistics, Kyungsung University)
  • 조재근 (경성대학교 정보통계학과)
  • Published : 2008.09.30
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Abstract

About 1800, mathematicians combined analysis of error and probability theory into error theory. After developed by Gauss and Laplace, error theory was widely used in branches of natural science. Motivated by the successful applications of error theory in natural sciences, scientists like Adolph Quetelet tried to incorporate social statistics with error theory. But there were not a few differences between social science and natural science. In this paper we discussed topics raised then. The problems considered are as follows: the interpretation of individual man in society; the arguments against statistical methods; history of the measures for diversity. From the successes and failures of the $19^{th}$ century social statisticians, we can see how statistics became a science that is essential to both natural and social sciences. And we can see that those problems, which were not easy to solve for the $19^{th}$ century social statisticians, matter today too.

오차에 대한 분석은 18세기 천문학과 측지학에서 시작된 뒤, 19세기 초 가우스와 라플라스에 의해 정규분포 및 최소제곱법과 결합되면서 오차이론이라고 불리기 시작하였다. 19세기 중엽 벨기에의 케틀레는 자연과학의 관측결과를 분석하는데 쓰이던 오차이론을 사회 데이터에 적용함으로써 사회 연구를 보다 더 과학적인 연구로 만들어보려 하였다. 그는 사회데이터에서 개인의 특수성을 배제하고 집단의 보편적인 사실만을 나타내는 '평균적인 사람'이라는 개념을 만들었다. 또 그는 비슷한 조건에 있는 여러 사람을 측정한 결과는 단일한 대상을 반복측정한 결과와 마찬가지라고 보고, 천문학의 오차이론을 사회데이터에 적용하였다. 이 논문에서는 오차와 정규분포가 사회 연구에 도입되면서 새로이 나타난 개인과 집단의 관계를 비롯하여 오차이론에 대한 반대 의견들, 오차를 대신하여 나타난 용어 등을 중심으로 19세기 중반에 통계학의 영역이 확대되는 과정을 살펴보았다.

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