DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Estimating Optimal Probability Distributions of Daily Potential Photovoltaic Power Generation for Development of Rural Green-Village by Solar Energy - with Area of Seosan Weather Station -

농촌그린빌리지 조성을 위한 일별 잠재적 태양광발전량의 적정확률분포형 추정 - 서산지역을 중심으로 -

  • 김대식 (충남대학교 농업생명과학대학 생물자원공학부) ;
  • 구승모 (충남대학교 농업생명과학대학 농업경제학과) ;
  • 남상운 (충남대학교 농업생명과학대학 생물자원공학부)
  • Published : 2008.11.30

Abstract

Photovoltaic power generation is currently being recognized as one of the most popular sources for renewable resources over the country. Although it is also being adapted to rural area for may reasons, it is important to estimate the magnitudes of power outputs with reliable statistical methodologies, while applying historical daily solar energy data, for correct feasibility analysis. In this study, one of the well-known statistical methodologies is employed to define the appropriate probability distributions for monthly power outputs for the selected rural area, county of Seo-san, province of Chungnam. The results imply that the assumption of normal distributions for several months may lead to incorrect decision-making and therefore lead to the unreliable feasibility analysis. Generalized beta and triangular distributions were found to be superior to normal distribution, when describing monthly probability distributions for daily photovoltaic power. Based on the appropriate distributions resulted from this study, Monte Carlo simulation technique was also applied to provide additional flexible information for the relevant decision makers. This study found out new finding that the probability distributions should be considered to make planning of the photovoltaic power system in rural village unit, in order to give reasonable economic analysis to the decision makers.

Keywords

References

  1. 김명래, 윤재옥, 2006, 풍력발전을 주 에너지원으로 적용한 그린빌리지 디자인, 한국생태환경건축학회 학술발표대회논문집 6(2), pp. 139-147
  2. 김명철, 주재욱, 서간호, 이경희, 최정민, 2007, 주거용 건물의 태양광 발전시스템 투자회수 기간 산정, 한국태양에너지학회 논문집 27(2), pp. 87-93
  3. 김명희, 1992, 시뮬레이션 기초이론, 한국시뮬레이션학회 산학협동단기강좌교재
  4. 김선민, 2002, 경영시뮬레이션, 한경사
  5. 김준태, 김경호, 백현수, 이수홍, 2001, 태양광발전 시스템이 적용된 주택용 Solar roof 개발에 관한 연구, 한국태양에너지학회 학술발표대회논문집, pp. 140-148
  6. 남상운, 김대식, 2008, 친환경 농촌마을계획을 위한 신재생에너지 활용방안 연구 - 태양에너지 자원분석-, 한국농공학회논문집, 50(3), pp. 139-154 https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2008.50.3.105
  7. 농림부, 2007, 농촌마을 리모델링 기법개발에 관한 연구, pp. 66-72
  8. 안교상, 임희천, 황인호, 1999, 50kW급 계통연계형 태양광발전시스템 운전특성 분석, 한국태양에너지학회 학술발표대회논문집, pp. 116-120
  9. 조덕기, 전일수, 전명석, 강용혁, 오정무, 2001, 방위별 경사면일사량 분석에 관한 연구, 한국태양에너지학회 논문집 21(3), pp. 19-24
  10. Evans, M., N. Hasting and B. Peacock, 1993, Statistical Distribution -second edition-, John Wiley & Sons, Inc
  11. Gujarati, D. N., 1998, Econometrics, McGraw-Hill
  12. Palisade Corporation, 2008, Guide to Using @Risk, www.palisade.com

Cited by

  1. Statistics and Probability Distribution of Total Coliforms in Wastewater vol.55, pp.3, 2013, https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2013.55.3.105